SPIKE Context

🔎 Головні сигнали

Україна з початку сезону експортувала 4,66 млн тонн зернових і зернобобових: Поставки пшениці з початку сезону становили 2,337 млн тонн проти 4,168 млн тонн на відповідну дату минулого року . Provider: brave_search (ukragroconsult.com)

Атаки РФ збільшили строки експорту агропродукції з України на 40–50% – Мінагрополітики — Forbes.ua: Український експорт зернових через морські порти суттєво скоротився після посилення російських атак на портову інфраструктуру та цивільні судна у другій половині липня 2026 року ... Provider: brave_search (forbes.ua)

Grains and oilseeds: new EU estimates - Mundus Agri: BRUSSELS. Egypt is turning to Europe for wheat. Transportation is becoming more difficult for corn in Ukraine. China is well on course to meet its commitments for US soybeans. (mundus-agri.eu)

The Other Hormuz: Black Sea Blockade Threatens a Food Supply Shock: Arguably, Ukraine has even a bigger problem. The ports around Odesa, which is under a regular barrage of Russian missiles and drones, usually handled about 90% of its grain exports . Provider: brave_search (gcaptain.com)

Ukraine war briefing: Russian attacks force closure of Ukraine’s largest steelmaker: Closure another blow to Ukraine’s steel sector, as Zelenskyy warns Moscow is expanding its targets to include ‘daily life’. What we know on day 1,676 (theguardian.com)

Black Sea export woes support wheat as harvest lags north | The Scottish Farmer: Shipping in the Black Sea region and the Sea of Azov is difficult, and the situation has not been helped by Latvia announcing plans for a 300% tariff on Russian and Belarusian grain. Provider: brave_search (thescottishfarmer.co.uk)

Will Ukraine’s Record Wartime Harvest Reach Global Markets? – Food Tank: One of the clearest signs of how global grain trade is shifting comes from Argentina. According to Reuters, Argentina’s corn exports are expected to reach a record 10 million metric tons in August and September 2026 while the usual export volumes for August-September reach about 3 million tons. Argentina is also getting more active in the global sunflower an (foodtank.com)

Ukraine War Map — Live Front Lines, 17 War Events in 24h: Global food security was immediately threatened because Ukraine and Russia together account for roughly 30% of global wheat exports, 20% of corn exports, and significant shares of barley, sunflower oil, and fertilizer production. The blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports in 2022 prevented grain shipments to food-import-dependent nations across Africa, the Mi (the-world-now.com)

Soybeans sell-off Friday, still manage a higher weekly move - Brownfield Ag News: The USDA’s Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are out on the 30th. Globally, the trade is watching spring wheat harvest delays in Canada, along with development conditions in Argentina and Australia and weather, inputs, and war during winter wheat planting in Russia and Ukraine. ... Tags: Ag Weather, Argentina, Australia, Black Sea, Braz (brownfieldagnews.com)

CBOT Wheat Futures: Dec '26 $7.13 — Chicago SRW & KC HRW | AGSIST: Prices tend to recover into fall and winter as old-crop stocks tighten, then peak around April–May as pre-harvest uncertainty about the coming crop builds a risk premium. The seasonal chart above illustrates these tendencies by month. Black Sea supply surprises, geopolitical events, and export policy decisions routinely override seasonal patterns in any give (agsist.com)

🚚 Логістика

🌾 Зернові

Will harvest price pressure face rain delays? Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 220,534 contracts. Peace prospects in the Black Sea region still feel very uneven and uncertain at this time, but efforts at brokering attacks in the area continue in earnest (more on that below). That put some bearish pressure on wheat prices, which already continue to face the usual specter of large global stocks.: Will harvest price pressure face rain delays? Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 220,534 contracts. Peace prospects in the Black Sea region still feel very uneven and uncertain at this time, but efforts at brokering attacks in the area continue in earnest (more on that below). That put some bearish pressure on wheat prices, which already continue to f (farmprogress.com)

🌱 Олійні та переробка

Big soybean crops on way — but here’s where it gets sticky: Russia’s wheat exports so far in September have been running about 40% of normal levels, while Ukraine’s wheat and corn exports have been nearly zero, said Arlan Suderman, StoneX chief commodies economist. “Yet, we still have too much wheat in the United States and cheaper alternative sources are currently filling the void to this point,” Suderman said in a (farmprogress.com)

Demand helps pull 26/27 corn, soybean carryout lower - Brownfield Ag News: Globally, new crop wheat production was up on larger crop expectations for Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Ukraine, while exports for Russia and Ukraine were down modestly, not yet fully reflecting the Black Sea slowdown. World corn production was down, mostly because of the lower U.S. guess, with USDA also trimming exports for Brazil and Russia. Global ad (brownfieldagnews.com)