SPIKE Context

• Grain export volumes remain suppressed due to ongoing Black Sea logistical constraints, with wheat exports nearly reaching 3 million tonnes and corn shipments exceeding 2 million tonnes this season, yet still down year-on-year.

• Oilseed processing and exports hold relative strength amid grain export challenges, with sunflower seed prices stable at 400 USD/t processing basis and rapeseed non-GMO export prices steady at 500 USD/t CPT Odesa.

• Freight rates for grain shipments from Danube ports to Egypt have decreased to around 100 USD/t, easing some cost pressures on export logistics.

• Rail grain deliveries to Black Sea ports remain minimal, with only 3.77 thousand tonnes reaching Great Odesa by rail in six days, shifting export flows predominantly to western border routes.

• Corn export price stable at 165 USD/t CPT Odesa; export volumes up nearly 0.9 million tonnes year-on-year but still constrained by port and transport bottlenecks.

• Wheat export price steady at 175 USD/t CPT Odesa; total grain and pulse exports down 24.3% year-on-year reflecting ongoing Black Sea disruptions.

• Barley exports halved compared to last season, with only 460 thousand tonnes shipped so far, signaling a shift in cropping and export focus.

• Sunflower seed prices stable at 400 USD/t CPT Crush; despite logistical challenges, Ukrainian sunflower oil shipments expected to grow by nearly 24% in 2026/27 season per USDA forecasts.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices unchanged at 500 USD/t CPT Odesa export basis; global oilseed crush forecast raised to a record 611.89 million tonnes, supporting demand for Ukrainian oilseeds.

• Soybean export prices steady near 445 USD/t CPT Odesa; domestic processing prices for GMO soybeans hold at 370 USD/t.

• Export constraints continue to pressure farmers’ cash flow, limiting incentives to plant grains for 2027; rapeseed and sunflower remain the only crops with viable sales channels currently.

• Reopening of Black Sea routes could release large Ukrainian grain stocks, potentially pressuring global markets downward if accumulated inventories enter export channels.

• Global production of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower projected to rise in 2026/27, with increased oilseed crush and reduced ending stocks indicating stronger global processing demand.

• US wheat export commitments down over 30% year-on-year, while Black Sea export disruptions tighten regional supply, sustaining elevated price support for Ukrainian grains despite export volume declines.

• Delays in sunflower oil exports risk creating storage bottlenecks at oil extraction plants, potentially forcing cutbacks in sunflower seed processing and affecting corn processing capacity.

• Domestic diesel fuel price increases add cost pressures on agricultural logistics and processing operations, except in Rivne region where prices remain stable.