SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s export capacity remains severely constrained by ongoing Black Sea port strikes and vessel scarcity, limiting grain shipments despite a high harvest potential.

• Ukrainian corn and milling wheat prices hold steady at $195/t CPT Odesa, reflecting stable export quotations amid logistical bottlenecks.

• Export demand for Ukrainian wheat has nearly vanished due to global oversupply and blocked ports, pressuring export volumes and stocks accumulation domestically.

• Ukraine exported 2.36 million tons of wheat to Africa (mainly Algeria and Egypt) in the first eight months of 2025/26, but current export flows are hampered by infrastructure attacks.

• July 2026 agro-exports dropped 23.4% month-on-month to 3.67 million tons, evidencing ongoing export disruptions.

• Ukraine’s grain exports are squeezed by vessel scarcity and low Danube water levels, with alternative land routes unable to compensate for lost port capacity.

• Sunflower seed prices remain unchanged at $680/t CPT Crush but face downward pressure due to early harvest and export logistics constraints, leading to a bearish market phase.

• Rapeseed prices steady at $540/t CPT Crush; processors are favoring rapeseed crushing over sunflower due to improved margins amid export challenges.

• Domestic demand for soybeans is strengthening, lifting CPT Crush prices to $450/t, while export sales via western borders are under pressure.

• Ukraine introduced a 0.714 coefficient for minimum export prices on grains and oilseeds in August 2026, aiming to adjust export price floors amid market conditions.

• Direct agricultural sector losses due to blocked ports and export disruptions are estimated between $1.5 billion and $3 billion for 2026.

• Extreme heat in southern Ukraine accelerated sunflower ripening without visible yield losses so far, but prolonged heat and moisture stress remain a risk during flowering and seed filling stages.

• Ukraine’s 2026/27 season could see potential exports of about 52 million tons of grains and oilseeds, contingent on full operation of deepwater ports.

• Escalating attacks on Black Sea export infrastructure are disrupting global grain and oil shipments, raising shipping costs and market uncertainty worldwide.

• Algeria sharply raised wheat purchase prices amid shipping risks, reflecting concerns over supply reliability from the Black Sea region.