SPIKE Context

🔎 Головні сигнали

Ukraine increased rail shipments of grain across most border crossings in June: # Ukraine increased rail shipments of grain across most border crossings in June. In June, Ukraine increased the volume of grain shipments transferred by rail across all border crossings compared with the previous month, except for the border with Romania. He specified that the largest increase in the average daily volume of shipments was recorded on the rou (apk-inform.com)

USDA Announces Availability of 2026 Ukraine Grain Transportation Report and New Ukraine Grain Transportation Dashboard | Agricultural Marketing Service: An official website of the United States government. A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) today announced the publication of the 2026 Ukraine Grain Transportation report and the launch of a new data tool, the Ukraine Grain Trans (ams.usda.gov)

Can Grain Trains Save Ukrainian Farmers, And Avert A Global Food Crisis? Before the war, Ukraine exported more than 5 million metric tons of grain every month, most of it via its ports on the Black Sea. But now Russian warships block those ports, making such shipments impossible, and dealing a blow to global food supplies, not to mention Ukraine's agricultural sector. Ukraine, its neighbors, and the EU, are now scrambling to find other routes to get Ukrainian grain to market, with rail emerging as a viable option despite a legion of logistical challenges.: Can Grain Trains Save Ukrainian Farmers, And Avert A Global Food Crisis? Before the war, Ukraine exported more than 5 million metric tons of grain every month, most of it via its ports on the Black Sea. But now Russian warships block those ports, making such shipments impossible, and dealing a blow to global food supplies, not to mention Ukraine's agricultur (rferl.org)

Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports cause drop in food exports: Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals Learn more about Refinitiv. ## Browse World. * Ukraine and Russia at War. ## Browse Business. (reuters.com)

Ukraine exports over 37.46 million tonnes of grain in 2025/26 | Ukraine news - #Mezha: ### Russian drones struck Zaporizhzhia, killing a delivery driver and damaging Nova Poshta branch. ### Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, air defenses intercepted most threats. ### Russian forces struck a private company in Dnipropetrovsk region. By July 1, at the end of the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine had exported over 3 (mezha.net)

✅Поточна ситуації з обробкою вагонів із зерном в морських портах України станом на 02.07.2026 року (у порівнянні з минулим тижнем): ⚡️Середньодобовий показник вивантаження вагонів в портах Великої Одеси –1 054 ваг/доба (-120 ваг/доба у порівнянні з минулим тижнем); ✅Кількість вагонів із зерном, що рухаються в напрямку портів Великої Одеси – 5 136 ваг (-1985 ваг); ✅Середньодобове навантаження вагонів на мережі в напрямку портів Великої Одеси 468 ваг/доба (-718 ваг/добу). ✅ Кількість вагонів із зерном, що рухаються в напрямку портів Дунаю – 170 ваг. (+121 ваг). Середньодобовий показник вивантаження вагонів –50 ваг/доба (+11 ваг.).: ✅Поточна ситуації з обробкою вагонів із зерном в морських портах України станом на 02.07.2026 року (у порівнянні з минулим тижнем): ⚡️Середньодобовий показник вивантаження вагонів в портах Великої Одеси –1 054 ваг/доба (-120 ваг/доба у порівнянні з минулим тижнем); ✅Кількість вагонів із зерном, що рухаються в напрямку портів Великої Одеси – 5 136 ваг (-1985 (telegram_text)

🚚 Логістика

🌾 Зернові

Why grain can't get out of Ukraine - Vox: About 30 percent of Ukrainian grain exports are leaving through Poland near Gdansk, on the Baltic Sea, and the rest are headed everywhere else — (vox.com)

🌱 Олійні та переробка

Ukraine's Export Problems Are Back - Successful Farming: Russia's suspended participation in the "Black Sea Grain Initiative" means exporting Ukrainian grain and oilseeds has once again become a mess. Before the war, up to 95% of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds were exported through the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi, Kherson, and Mykolaiv on the Black Sea, and the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupil on the Sea o (agriculture.com)

Ukraine increased corn exports by 1.5 times in April — AgroPortal.ua: # Ukraine increased corn exports by 1.5 times and wheat exports by 75% in April. In April of the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported almost 5.2 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds. According to analysts, export volumes increased by 39% compared with April last year, when they stood at 3.73 million tonnes. Corn supplies to foreign markets in April increased by 1.5 (agroportal.ua)

Sunflower Oil Kazakhstan Suppliers, Trade & Prices | Market Overview 2026 | Tridge: Compare Sunflower Oil supplier coverage, trade flows, and price benchmarks across countries related to Kazakhstan. ... All related country market pages: India, Ukraine, China, Russia, Argentina, Turkiye, Bulgaria, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Romania, Uzbekistan, Singapore, United States, Egypt, Moldova, Bolivia, Saudi Ar (tridge.com)

Ukrainian strike sets fire to oil refinery in southern Russia - ABC News: It is also a key source of petroleum products intended for export through Russia’s Black Sea ports, including fuel oil, naphtha and marine fuel. Zelenskyy also claimed that another Russian refinery, in the Yaroslavl region around 700 kilometers (435 miles) from the Ukrainian border, was hit during the nighttime strikes. Provider: brave_search (abcnews.com)

Spike Sea | 30 Jun 2026: Spike Sea | 30 Jun 2026 Corn bid 25k-27k FOB POC 05 Sep – 20 Sep 2026 215$ Corn bid 12k-18k CIF Naples 16 Aug – 31 Aug 2026 SUBJECT Wheat 11.5pro offer 5k-6k CIF Egypt 20 Jul – 10 Aug 2026 244$ Soybean Meal Gmo 45.5pro (non-pellets) offer 4 (MN7R Bluesky)

🇺🇦 SPIKE SPOT INDEX UKRAINE | Weekly Commodity & Logistics Market

Main export signals for the period:

1. Ukrainian grain exports sustained strong throughput with over 36 million tonnes shipped by early July 2026, reflecting ongoing export resilience amid harvest start.

2. Rail shipments of grain increased notably at western border crossings, with daily railcar volumes rising significantly on routes to Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

3. Road transport remained essential in moving grains and oilseeds toward EU markets, despite some congestion and logistical challenges.

4. Danube river ports provided supplementary export capacity, though volumes stayed limited by infrastructure constraints and higher costs compared to Black Sea ports.

🚚 ROAD TRANSPORT:

Road crossings at Chop and other western border points maintained steady activity with consistent flows of grain and oilseeds toward EU destinations.

Local FCA Chop prices for corn and soybeans remained stable, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions on the inland market.

Road transport adapted to occasional congestion, supporting export momentum and complementing rail and port logistics.

The strategic importance of road transport persists as it helps alleviate pressure on rail and port systems amid ongoing regional uncertainties.

🚝 RAIL TRANSPORT:

Rail grain shipments increased by nearly 18% year-to-date, demonstrating expanded capacity and improved operational efficiency.

Average daily railcar volumes rose by 8.9 wagons/day to Poland, 4.8 wagons/day to Slovakia, and 3 wagons/day to Hungary, reflecting growing export flows.

Rail export volumes were split between direct deliveries to Black Sea ports and transfers at western border crossings for onward EU distribution.

Rail remains a crucial export channel balancing port congestion and providing access to diverse European markets.

⚠️ Some bottlenecks persist at border crossings, but infrastructure improvements and operational adjustments helped mitigate delays.

🚧 BORDER DIRECTION:

Wagon transfer and accumulation intensified at key western border points including Chop, facilitating efficient grain transshipment.

Cross-border rail operations focused on optimizing grain flows toward EU transit hubs, supporting export diversification.

Border infrastructure upgrades contributed to smoother wagon handling despite elevated traffic volumes.

⚓️ PORT DIRECTION:

Odesa port upheld its leading role in Ukrainian grain exports, handling approximately 36 million tonnes by early July 2026.

Port operations faced challenges from elevated freight rates and regional security concerns, impacting shipping schedules and costs.

Danube river ports contributed complementary export capacity but remained limited by infrastructure and higher logistics expenses.

Despite Russian attacks and blockades, Black Sea ports continued facilitating significant export volumes, underscoring their strategic importance.

Part II. Grains

📈 SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine:

Corn CPT Odesa prices declined slightly to 210 USD/t, down by 2 USD amid ongoing harvest pressure and export competition.

Milling wheat CPT Odesa eased to 206.8 USD/t, decreasing by 1 USD, while feed wheat prices also softened to 196.6 USD/t.

Corn FCA Chop prices held steady at 222 USD/t, indicating localized market stability despite broader price adjustments.

Export volumes remained robust with corn comprising over half of grain shipments by volume during the reporting period.

New-crop corn prices showed limited volatility as harvesting advanced in key producing regions, balancing supply and demand.

Wheat export prices experienced modest declines influenced by seasonal supply increases and subdued import demand.

Harvesting commenced in Odesa oblast, signaling potential supply increases and influencing near-term price dynamics.

🌽 CORN:

Corn export prices at CPT Odesa decreased by 2 USD/t to 210 USD/t, reflecting harvest progress and export market adjustments.

FCA Chop corn prices remained stable at 222 USD/t, supporting steady inland demand and export logistics.

Export shipments of corn continued to dominate grain exports, accounting for a significant share of total volumes.

🌾 WHEAT:

Milling wheat prices at CPT Odesa declined slightly to 206.8 USD/t, with feed wheat also easing to 196.6 USD/t.

Export demand for wheat remained moderate, with some downward pressure from increased supplies and competitive global markets.

Feed wheat prices showed minor gains in some segments, reflecting feed sector requirements amid harvest flows.

Part III. Oilseeds and processing products

Sunflower seed prices at CPT Crush decreased by 5 USD/t to 720.7 USD/t, indicating some easing in processing demand.

GMO soybean prices at CPT Crush held steady at 458.5 USD/t, while non-GMO soybean export prices at CPT Odesa rose by 5 USD/t to 460 USD/t.

Rapeseed non-GMO prices at CPT Crush declined by 4 USD/t to 595.5 USD/t, with export prices also softening amid subdued demand.

🌻 SUNFLOWER:

Sunflower seed processing prices softened slightly, reflecting seasonal supply increases and variable export interest.

Sunflower oil exports remained a dominant segment, accounting for over 78% of oilseed product shipments in June.

🌿 RAPESEED:

Rapeseed prices decreased moderately at both processing and export points, influenced by global market trends and local supply.

Export volumes of rapeseed remained steady but faced competitive pressures from alternative oilseeds.

🌱 SOYBEANS:

Soybean export prices showed mixed dynamics, with GMO soybean export prices rising by 15 USD/t at CPT Odesa, while FCA Chop prices remained stable.

Non-GMO soybean prices increased modestly at export points, supporting steady demand from processing and feed sectors.

Processing margins for soybeans remained under pressure due to stable input costs and fluctuating global demand.

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