SPIKE Context

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa declined slightly by $2/t to $209.8/t, while feed wheat prices also eased by $2/t to $196/t. Milling wheat prices remained stable at $208/t. GMO and non-GMO soybean prices at FCA Chop rose by $15/t, reflecting firm demand at $465/t and $475/t respectively. Rapeseed processing prices dropped notably by $24/t to $544/t, with export prices down $2/t to $555/t at CPT Odesa.

• Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest has started strongly, supporting Black Sea supply and weighing on prices amid competition from the EU harvest. June grain exports exceeded 3.5 million tons, with wheat shipments up 89% year-on-year to 1.56 million tons. Rail grain shipments for export increased 18.9% in H1 2026 compared to 2025, led by higher volumes to Poland. Despite export growth, total 2025/26 grain exports reached 37.5 million tons, down 7.7% from last year.

• Sunflower seed prices at CPT Crush declined by $12/t to $709/t amid limited farmer selling and low late-season supply. Sunflower oil prices hit a 2025/26 season high of $1,335–1,340/t delivered to port, driven by steady processing and tight availability. Rapeseed prices fell sharply, with processing prices down $24/t and export prices slipping $2/t. Ukraine expects a 2026 sunflower harvest of 13.3 million tons, up from 11.1 million tons in 2025, with nearly all sunflower to be processed domestically.

• Ukraine’s export duty on rapeseed and soybean seeds continues to suppress oilseed exports, with sunflower exports minimal despite a large harvest. Domestic processing absorbs most of the sunflower crop, totaling 10.5 million tons including stocks. Registration for duty-free soybean and rapeseed exports for the 2026/27 season opened July 1 via the State Agrarian Register, aiming to support export flows.

• Domestic processing remains robust, especially for sunflower seeds, limiting farmer selling and sustaining high seed prices. Rapeseed processing is increasing, expected to reduce sunflower processing demand in July, which may pressure sunflower prices downward. The mayonnaise and sauces producer TM Gulyai-pole continues to expand product lines using Ukrainian sunflower oil, reflecting stable domestic demand.

• Ukraine’s spring oilseed crops face key risks from heat and moisture shortages during the critical crop formation stage, though no widespread damage has been reported yet. Weather conditions will be decisive for final production outcomes in sunflower and soybean sectors.

• Black Sea wheat market faces pressure from EU harvest progress and Russian logistical challenges, with importers in MENA and Asia monitoring Ukrainian offers closely due to competitive Black Sea discounts. Russia’s refinery attacks and diesel export bans add uncertainty to regional logistics, indirectly impacting Ukraine’s export environment. Ukraine’s grain exports remain critical to global food security, with ongoing risks from intensified Russian attacks on ports and infrastructure.