SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian Black Sea port disruptions and attacks on grain and sunflower oil infrastructure have triggered a sharp rise in export wheat prices despite some domestic price declines.

• Kernel Holding suspended operations at Chornomorsk port after major Russian strikes damaged storage and transshipment facilities, impacting grain and oilseed exports.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa rose to $211/t (+$2), supported by active early July shipments totaling 488,000 tons, with main buyers including Turkey, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, and Spain.

• Ukrainian corn prices remain under pressure from increased South American supply, notably Brazil’s ongoing second crop harvest and falling global prices.

• Milling wheat export prices increased slightly to $209/t (+$1) CPT Odesa amid tightening Black Sea logistics and risk premiums from port disruptions.

• Feed wheat prices also edged up to $197.7/t (+$1) CPT Odesa, reflecting export market support despite domestic declines.

• Ukraine’s 2026/27 corn export forecast stands near 23 million tons, representing about 11% of global corn trade, but port disruptions and redirected shipments via Danube increase logistical costs and limit capacity.

• Key wheat buyers Egypt, Algeria, and Indonesia supplied 62% of Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat exports but may reduce purchases in 2026/27 due to higher domestic stocks.

• Sunflower seed prices at CPT Crush surged to $716.3/t (+$7) amid tight global supply and robust export demand, despite Ukrainian processing plants facing inverted crush margins due to high seed costs versus FOB oil prices.

• Rapeseed non-GMO processing prices jumped $15 to $578.3/t CPT Crush, with export prices at CPT Odesa rising to $580/t (+$17), supported by growing domestic crushing and shifting global rapeseed market dynamics favoring Ukraine.

• GMO soybean processing prices increased $2 to $460/t CPT Crush, while export prices at CPT Odesa declined slightly to $450/t (-$3), reflecting mixed demand signals.

• Ukraine’s soybean exports remain concentrated in Turkey and Egypt, while the EU dominates soybean meal and oil imports, highlighting the need for new markets beyond biofuels.

• Despite selective downtime at some Ukrainian crushing plants due to unfavorable margins, sunflower oil exports remain strong, contributing significantly to Ukraine’s estimated $18 billion grain and oilseed export revenues in 2025/26.

• Rapeseed processing is expanding domestically, with 2026 production expected to reach 3.4 million tons and crushing supporting higher value-added product exports.

• Global grain and sunflower oil markets reacted sharply to Black Sea and Sea of Azov port disruptions, with wheat futures surging on fears of prolonged export bottlenecks and increased risk premiums.

• Russia’s blockade of the Sea of Azov and Ukrainian strikes on Russian shipping routes have escalated logistical challenges, limiting Russian grain export capacity during peak season and further tightening global supplies.

• Ukraine’s export share of global wheat (6%) and corn (11%) underscores the international impact of ongoing Black Sea disruptions on food security and commodity prices.