SPIKE Context

• Black Sea export disruptions continue to dominate Ukrainian grain and oilseed markets, driving price volatility despite ongoing harvest activity.

• Russian missile strikes have reduced Ukraine’s grain export capacity at Black Sea ports by about one-third, pressuring logistics and export volumes.

• Corn prices at CPT Odesa rose slightly to 212 USD/t amid export route uncertainties and shifting Asian feed demand favoring corn over wheat due to rising wheat freight costs.

• Milling wheat prices declined to 206 USD/t at CPT Odesa despite firm export demand, pressured by harvest progress and domestic market weakness.

• Feed wheat prices fell to 196 USD/t on similar fundamentals, with export logistics constraints limiting upside.

• Black Sea export risks and port capacity losses are keeping wheat prices elevated globally, but Ukrainian domestic prices show mixed signals.

• Rapeseed prices at CPT Crush declined by 11 USD/t to 566.6 USD/t, yet competition between exporters and processors intensifies amid reports of better-than-expected yields and a harvest gaining momentum.

• Non-GMO rapeseed export prices at CPT Odesa dropped by 10 USD/t to 570 USD/t, while FCA Chop prices rose 15 USD/t to 585 USD/t, reflecting localized demand dynamics.

• Sunflower seed prices at CPT Crush softened by 5 USD/t to 710.5 USD/t amid strong export margins but potential pressure from stock liquidation and shifting buyer focus to the new crop.

• A recent Russian attack damaged the Kernel sunflower oil terminal in Odesa, destroying approximately 9,000 tons of sunflower oil and tightening supply further.

• Soybean export prices declined, with GMO soybean CPT Port down 10 USD/t to 440 USD/t and non-GMO soybean CPT Port down 13 USD/t to 450 USD/t, amid subdued demand and processing challenges.

• Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have lost about one-third of grain export capacity due to intensified Russian strikes, complicating procurement, sales, and shipments.

• Exporters are increasingly relying on alternative routes such as Romania’s Constanta port and Danube River, but these cannot fully compensate for Black Sea disruptions, raising export costs and logistical bottlenecks.

• Asian feed mills, notably in Vietnam, are shifting feed formulations from wheat to corn due to higher wheat prices and increased Black Sea freight costs, supporting corn demand.

• Global wheat prices have surged on concerns over Black Sea export risks, pulling up corn and soybean markets as well, despite ongoing harvests in Ukraine and Russia.

• Ukraine’s strategic role in global corn trade (about 11% of global exports) and sunflower oil markets means that port disruptions have broader implications for international commodity flows.

• Russian Federation has sharply increased sunflower oil exports to India and Turkey, partially offsetting Ukrainian supply losses caused by infrastructure attacks.

• Overall, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments affecting Black Sea shipping lanes, with export capacity and logistics the key near-term constraints.