SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain export capacity has dropped by about one third due to intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure, terminals, and logistics chains, severely limiting maritime shipments.

• Kernel, Ukraine’s largest grain exporter, suspended operations at its Chornomorsk terminal after missile and drone strikes damaged grain handling equipment and storage, causing losses of approximately 45,000 tonnes of wheat and 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

• Export through deep-water Black Sea ports has effectively halted, forcing reliance on alternative logistics routes such as rail and river, which cannot fully compensate for lost maritime capacity.

• Global wheat futures have surged to two-year highs amid escalating Black Sea export risks, with logistical concerns outweighing fundamental supply factors.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa declined slightly to 208 USD/t (-4 USD/t), while corn FCA Chop rose modestly to 232 USD/t (+2 USD/t), reflecting mixed market reactions amid export disruptions.

• Milling wheat prices remained stable at 206 USD/t CPT Odesa, supported by strong export demand despite internal market price pressures.

• Feed wheat prices held steady at 196 USD/t CPT Odesa, with Asian feed mills reportedly shifting towards increased corn usage due to higher wheat freight costs from the Black Sea.

• Russian missile and drone attacks have caused significant damage to Ukrainian Black Sea port infrastructure, including terminals at Chornomorsk and Odesa, leading to a one-third reduction in grain export capacity.

• Shipowners are increasingly reluctant to call at Black Sea ports due to security risks, further constraining export flows and raising freight rates.

• Alternative logistics routes via rail and Danube river ports are partially mitigating export bottlenecks but cannot fully replace deep-water port throughput.

• Sunflower seed processing prices declined slightly to 705 USD/t CPT Crush (-5 USD/t) amid constrained export supply caused by terminal damage and limited shipments.

• Sunflower oil export volumes from Ukraine remain low due to recent attacks on Kernel’s vegetable oil terminal, which damaged about 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, tightening supply and supporting firm prices.

• Non-GMO soybean export prices at CPT Odesa rose marginally to 455 USD/t (+5 USD/t), while GMO soybean export prices fell to 435 USD/t (-5 USD/t), reflecting mixed demand and supply dynamics.

• Rapeseed non-GMO export prices declined to 560 USD/t CPT Odesa (-10 USD/t) amid ongoing harvest momentum and increasing competition between exporters and processors domestically.

• Recent heatwave at end of June and early July posed risks to sunflower and soybean crops, but cooler forecasts and localized rainfall are expected to support yield potential as most crops have not reached critical development stages.

• Escalating Black Sea tensions and port disruptions have increased wheat export prices despite ongoing harvest, driven by concerns over logistics rather than supply shortages.

• Asian feed mills, particularly in Vietnam, are adjusting formulations to use more corn instead of feed wheat due to elevated wheat prices and shipping costs from the Black Sea region.

• Ukraine’s blockade and strikes on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov have triggered a potential 'Strait of Hormuz-style' crisis, impacting Russian wheat exports and further destabilizing regional grain trade.

• Global markets are closely monitoring Black Sea export corridor risks, as Ukraine and Russia together account for a significant share of global grain trade, with disruptions pushing freight costs higher and delaying deliveries.