SPIKE Context

• Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports have reduced grain export capacity by about one third, severely disrupting shipments and forcing exporters to shift to western land routes and Danube ports.

• Kernel, Ukraine’s largest grain exporter, suspended operations at its Chornomorsk terminal after damage to grain handling and storage facilities caused losses of approximately 45,000 tonnes of wheat and 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

• Milling wheat export prices at CPT Odesa declined slightly by $2/t to $204/t amid logistical disruptions and export uncertainties.

• Feed wheat prices also fell by $2/t to $194/t on similar export challenges.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa remained stable at $208/t, while FCA Chop prices rose by $2/t to $234/t, reflecting some regional price differentiation due to logistics.

• Export capacity losses and port strikes have raised global wheat prices sharply, with Black Sea export risks driving market concerns despite ongoing harvests.

• Asian feed mills are reportedly preparing to substitute feed wheat with corn due to higher wheat prices and increased Black Sea freight costs, supporting corn demand.

• Sunflower seed prices at CPT Crush held steady at $705/t, supported by firm export demand and hot July weather.

• Rapeseed non-GMO processing prices declined by $8/t to $560/t, though competition between exporters and processors remains intense amid a harvest reportedly better than last year.

• Non-GMO rapeseed export prices at CPT Odesa remained unchanged at $560/t, while FCA Chop prices increased by $5/t to $590/t.

• GMO soybean processing prices rose by $6/t to $459.5/t, but non-GMO soybean export prices at CPT Odesa dropped by $5/t to $450/t.

• A recent attack on Kernel’s vegetable oil terminal damaged about 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, further tightening supply and supporting vegetable oil prices amid a crude oil rally.

• Russian strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports have caused extensive damage to port infrastructure and grain handling equipment, forcing a significant reduction in maritime export capacity.

• Exporters are increasingly shifting shipments to western land border routes and Danube river ports, though these alternatives cannot fully compensate for lost deep-water port capacity.

• The blockade and damage have led to higher freight rates and increased shipping costs, contributing to export price volatility and supply chain bottlenecks.

• A recent heatwave at the end of June and early July posed risks to sunflower and soybean crops, but its impact on yield potential remains limited as most crops have not yet reached critical development stages.

• Forecasts of cooler temperatures and localized rainfall are supporting a generally positive outlook for spring oilseeds in Ukraine.

• Sunflower seed processing remains active with stable prices, but domestic processors are gradually reducing purchases of old-crop raw materials as they shift focus to the 2026/27 harvest.

• Competition between rapeseed exporters and processors is intensifying, supporting firm prices despite some recent declines in processing price levels.

• The ongoing conflict and Ukraine’s successful strikes on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov have raised concerns about a potential broader blockade affecting both Ukrainian and Russian grain exports through the Black Sea.

• This situation is contributing to elevated global wheat prices and increased market volatility, as the Black Sea corridor is a critical export route linking Eastern European producers with buyers in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.