SPIKE Context

🔎 Головні сигнали

Ukraine unveils 2030 Export Strategy targeting US$85B in annual exports | Food Business Middle East & Africa - No.1 Food & Beverage Formulation, Processing & Packaging Publication: This strategic document is a roadmap for the development of Ukraine’s trade with the world in the coming years. We have a reserve for such growth – increasing exports of products with high added value. This will allow us to increase the economy’s income, develop processing, create new jobs, and overcome export restrictions.” (foodbusinessmea.com)

Argentina’s sunseed production could reach a record 7 mln tons in MY 2025/26: The USDA raised its export forecast to 1.1 mln tons, well above the previous year’s level. The increase is being driven mainly by demand from Eastern European countries, particularly Bulgaria and Romania, which are facing higher costs and limited availability of Ukrainian sunflower seed. Although many Argentine crushing plants can process several oilseeds, o (ukragroconsult.com)

Ukrainian rapeseed becomes key to the European market: As a result of the reduction in Canadian canola production and export potential, China may replace its import supplies with deliveries from Australia. Supplies of rapeseed from Australia and Ukraine remain alternatives for the EU. ... A growing focus on domestic rapeseed processing and exports of processed products. (ukragroconsult.com)

Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says: Follow the latest international and world news, breaking stories and global current events from your trusted online news source. Provider: brave_search (reuters.com)

Deep-water grain exports from Ukraine have effectively halted due to Russian attacks: Massive Russian attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure have effectively brought the country's deep-water grain exports to a halt. Most major grain traders have suspended purchases of agricultural commodities on a CPT basis at deep-water ports, while several terminals have temporarily ceased operations, according to Bohdan Kostetskyi, Operating Pa (ukragroconsult.com)

Russian attacks cut Ukraine grain exports by one third through Black Sea ports | Ukraine news - #Mezha: Ukraine is an important player in the global agricultural market: it accounts for about 6% of global wheat exports and around 11% of corn exports . Provider: brave_search (mezha.net)

🚚 Логістика

🌾 Зернові

Yuri Baranchik: Grain exchanges began to respond to Kiev's strikes on the Sea of Azov - Pravda Romania: Ukrainian officials and exporters allowed for a drop in monthly cargo traffic from about 6 million to 4 million tons; about 1 million more tons can be redirected to the Danube, but this route is more expensive and limited in capacity. Besides, Ukraine is important not only for the wheat market. The USDA forecasts its corn exports in 2026/27 at about 23 milli (romania.news-pravda.com)

Ukraine Strengthens Ties With European Union and Romania as Russia Targets Odesa’s Strategic Port Amid High-Stakes Kyiv Defence Talks, Raising Fresh Alarm Over Black Sea Trade, Passenger Connectivity and Future Tourism Recovery - Travel And Tour World: Before the conflict, Ukraine ranked among the world’s largest exporters of wheat, maize, sunflower oil and barley. Much of that trade traditionally flowed through Black Sea ports centred around Odesa. Although export routes have diversified through Danube River ports and European rail networks, maritime shipping remains essential for maintaining competitive (travelandtourworld.com)

🌱 Олійні та переробка

🌱 Ukraine’s rapeseed meal export outlook may become more challenging in 2026/27 — ASAP Agri: 🌱 Ukraine’s rapeseed meal export outlook may become more challenging in 2026/27 — ASAP Agri 🇺🇦 Ukraine is expected to remain a sizeable rapeseed meal supplier in the new season, with ASAP Agri forecasting the 2026/27 rapeseed crop at 3.7 (<span dir="auto">ASAP Agri</span>)

Spike Sea | 15 Jul 2026: Spike Sea | 15 Jul 2026 Barley offer 5k-6k CIF Israel 11 Aug – 31 Aug 2026 232$ Rapeseed Ngmo 42% (as Is) offer 2k-2k CIF Ruse 25 Jul – 20 Aug 2026 520€ Milling Wheat 13.0pro bid 3k-4k CIF Famagusta 25 Jul – 15 Aug 2026 265$ Soybean bid 5k- (MN7R Bluesky)

🇺🇦 SPIKE SPOT INDEX UKRAINE | Weekly Commodity & Logistics Market

Part I. Logistics

Main export signals for the period:

1. Ukrainian grain exports sustained throughput exceeding 36 million tonnes year-to-date, despite operational challenges at Black Sea ports.

2. Rail shipments of grain increased significantly at western border crossings, with daily wagon volumes rising notably to Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

3. Road transport preserved a key role in export logistics, especially at western border points such as Chop, with steady flows of grains and oilseeds.

4. Danube river ports provided supplementary export capacity, though volumes remained limited by infrastructure constraints.

🚚 ROAD TRANSPORT:

Road crossings at Chop and other western borders maintained consistent activity, predominantly handling grain and oilseed cargoes destined for EU markets.

Local FCA Chop corn prices stood at 234 USD/t, indicating stable market conditions at this key road transit hub.

Logistics chains adapted to localized congestion, ensuring ongoing export flow and competitive supply chains.

🚝 RAIL TRANSPORT:

Rail grain shipments increased across most western borders except Romania, with average daily wagon counts reaching 22.3 to Poland, 25.4 to Slovakia, and 53.6 to Hungary.

Rail flows were split between direct deliveries to Black Sea ports and transfers at border points for onward transport.

Rail remains a critical export channel balancing port congestion and providing access to diversified routes.

🚧 BORDER DIRECTION:

Wagon transfer and accumulation intensified at major western border points including Chop, facilitating export logistics.

However, wagon transfer volumes decreased at Hungary and Slovakia crossings by 12.9 and 10.5 wagons per day respectively, reflecting shifting logistics dynamics.

⚓️ PORT DIRECTION:

Ports of the Greater Odesa region handled an average of 968 grain wagons unloaded daily, slightly down by 86 wagons compared to the previous week.

The number of wagons moving toward Odesa ports declined to 4,639, while daily loading on the rail network toward these ports increased to 833 wagons.

Danube river ports recorded reduced grain wagon traffic averaging 138 wagons daily, continuing to provide alternative export capacity despite infrastructure limits.

Part II. Grains

📈 SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine:

Corn CPT Odesa remained steady at 208 USD/t during the week.

Milling wheat CPT Odesa decreased by 2 USD/t to 204 USD/t.

Feed wheat CPT Odesa also declined by 2 USD/t to 194 USD/t.

🌽 CORN:

Corn FCA Chop price increased by 2 USD/t to 234 USD/t, reflecting firm demand at western border transit points.

Ukraine's corn exports for 2026/27 are forecasted at approximately 23 million tons, representing around 11% of global corn trade.

🌾 WHEAT:

Milling wheat prices softened slightly amid export adjustments, with CPT Odesa values at 204 USD/t.

Ukraine remains a significant global wheat exporter, accounting for about 6% of worldwide wheat exports.

Part III. Oilseeds and processing products

Sunflower seed processing prices held steady at 705 USD/t CPT Crush.

GMO soybean processing prices rose by 6 USD/t to 459.5 USD/t CPT Crush.

Rapeseed non-GMO processing prices declined by 8 USD/t to 560 USD/t CPT Crush.

🌻 SUNFLOWER:

Demand for Ukrainian sunflower seed remains strong, though Argentine production is rising, driven by Eastern European buyers facing higher costs and limited Ukrainian availability.

A recent Russian attack damaged the Kernel sunflower oil transshipment terminal near Odesa, impacting logistics for sunflower oil exports.

🌿 RAPESEED:

Ukrainian rapeseed continues to be a key supplier to the European market amid reduced Canadian canola exports and shifting global supply chains.

Domestic rapeseed processing and exports of processed products are gaining increased focus.

Export prices for rapeseed non-GMO at CPT Odesa held at 560 USD/t, with FCA Chop prices rising by 5 USD/t to 590 USD/t.

🌱 SOYBEANS:

GMO soybean export prices at CPT Odesa remained unchanged at 435 USD/t, with FCA Chop prices stable at 450 USD/t.

Non-GMO soybean export prices at CPT Odesa declined by 5 USD/t to 450 USD/t, while FCA Chop prices held at 470 USD/t.

Soybean exports for 2026/27 are projected to decrease to 2.3 million tons, with more soybeans expected to be processed domestically due to export restrictions.

Ukraine's 2030 Export Strategy aims to increase exports of high value-added products, supporting economic growth, processing development, and job creation.

Overall, Ukrainian grain and oilseed export logistics continue to adapt amid infrastructure challenges and geopolitical risks, maintaining significant flows through diversified routes including rail, road, Danube river ports, and Black Sea maritime channels.