SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain export capacity remains under pressure from ongoing Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, notably in the Greater Odesa region, reducing port throughput by about one-third.

• Exporters continue shifting shipments to western border crossings and Danube ports, though these routes are less efficient and more costly, especially for wheat exports.

• Domestic prices for key grains and oilseeds show downward adjustments amid export disruptions and logistical challenges.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa declined by $5/t to $202.5/t reflecting logistical constraints and reduced port activity.

• Wheat milling and feed wheat prices also fell by $4/t each to $200/t and $190/t respectively on CPT Odesa basis, pressured by export route uncertainties.

• Despite recent price drops, global wheat futures remain elevated due to geopolitical risks affecting Black Sea exports, adding a risk premium to the market.

• Ukraine’s corn export forecast remains significant at around 23 million tons for 2026/27, representing about 11% of global corn trade, but export bottlenecks weigh on near-term price support.

• Sunflower seed processing prices dropped by $16/t to $694/t at CPT Crush, impacted by one of Ukraine’s worst sunflower harvests in a decade and constrained domestic supply.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices declined by $12/t to $547.5/t at CPT Crush and by $20/t to $540/t at CPT Odesa export basis amid suspended purchases at deep-water ports.

• Soybean prices softened with GMO soybean processing down $20/t to $440/t and non-GMO soybean export prices falling $10/t to $440/t at CPT Odesa.

• Kernel reported a 32% cut in oilseed processing in Q4 FY2026 due to limited sunflower seed availability, partially offset by increased processing of soybeans and rapeseed.

• Ukrainian rapeseed exports exceeded 430,000 tons in early July, mainly redirected to western EU markets including Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, France, and Czech Republic.

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes through Black Sea ports have dropped from about 6 million to 4 million tons monthly due to port attacks, with an additional 1 million tons rerouted via Danube ports.

• Analysts caution that redirecting wheat exports to western border rail routes remains economically inefficient compared to maritime shipments.

• Russian grain exports, particularly wheat and sunflower oil, continue to hold firm in July, supported by stable international prices and temporary logistical tightness in the Black Sea region.

• Ukraine exported over 540,000 tons of grain processing products in 2025/26, with bran accounting for 67% of these exports, indicating steady domestic milling activity despite export challenges.

• Domestic rapeseed prices collapsed to UAH 25,000–26,000/t due to suspended port purchases and shifting trade flows to the internal market.

• Ukrainian strikes have significantly reduced Russian grain exports through the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, affecting about 25% of Russia’s combined grain and sunflower oil shipments.

• China increased its wheat imports from Russia by 3.5 times in the first half of 2026, reflecting shifting global trade flows amid Black Sea export disruptions.

• Global rapeseed trade is marginally higher with increased exports from Moldova and raised crush forecasts for Ukraine, while global soybean stocks are expected to rise slightly due to larger carryover from Argentina.