SPIKE Context

• Black Sea port attacks and infrastructure damage have severely disrupted Ukrainian grain exports, notably at Chornomorsk, affecting around 45,000 tonnes of wheat and 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, leading to operational suspensions by major exporters like Kernel.

• Domestic prices for rapeseed, wheat, corn, and barley are falling sharply amid export corridor closures and suspended terminal operations.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed market is increasingly driven by domestic processing and higher value-added production, supported by export duties and shifting trade flows.

• Wheat export prices at CPT Odesa remain stable at $200/t, but domestic market prices are under pressure due to halted deep-sea exports and damaged port infrastructure.

• Corn prices at CPT Odesa hold steady at $203/t, with FCA Chop corn rising slightly by $4/t to $238/t, reflecting localized demand and logistical shifts.

• Feed wheat prices remain unchanged at $190/t CPT Odesa, despite export disruptions.

• Sunflower seed processing prices declined by $4/t to $690/t CPT Crush, reflecting supply constraints after port attacks and reduced sunflower harvests.

• Rapeseed non-GMO processing prices dropped by $12/t to $547.5/t CPT Crush, while export prices held steady at $540/t CPT Odesa, indicating stable external demand despite logistical challenges.

• GMO soybean processing prices increased by $5/t to $445/t CPT Crush, with export prices stable at $430/t CPT Odesa, supported by sustained processing demand.

• Kernel reported a 32% reduction in oilseed processing in Q4 FY2026 due to limited sunflower seed availability, partially offset by increased soybean and rapeseed processing.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed exports have been reoriented to western borders, with over 430,000 tonnes exported in early July mainly to Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, France, and the Czech Republic, as Black Sea routes remain compromised.

• Analysts note that redirecting wheat exports via western borders is economically inefficient, limiting the effectiveness of alternative routes amid port disruptions.

• Northern and western clusters of TAS Agro have commenced harvesting, signaling the start of the new crop season in these regions.

• Adverse weather and drought in Europe and Britain are expected to reduce crop yields by nearly 9 million tonnes this year, potentially impacting global grain supply dynamics.

• Domestic oilseed processing is shifting focus due to reduced sunflower seed availability, with increased crushing of soybeans and rapeseed to compensate.

• Ukrainian cheese producers are cutting production due to a 27% rise in imports of hard and semi-hard cheeses in H1 2026, indicating competitive pressure on domestic dairy processing.

• Global wheat prices surged mid-July on escalating Black Sea tensions and export disruptions, adding risk premiums to futures and pulling up corn and soybean prices worldwide.

• Russian grain exports are also impacted by Ukrainian strikes, with estimates suggesting up to 25% of Russia’s grain and sunflower oil exports shipped through vulnerable ports beyond the Kerch Strait.

• Shipping disruptions in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea region are forcing exporters to seek costlier alternative routes, increasing volatility in global grain and oilseed markets.