SPIKE Context

• Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, notably Chornomorsk and Odesa region terminals, have severely disrupted export infrastructure, forcing suspension of operations and damaging storage and transshipment facilities.

• Ukraine’s largest grain and oilseed exporter Kernel halted terminal activities after damage to equipment and power lines, affecting approximately 45,000 tonnes of wheat and 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

• Despite these disruptions, Ukraine’s total grain exports for the 2026/27 marketing year have surpassed 2 million tonnes by mid-July, reflecting ongoing shipments via alternative routes.

• Corn export prices at the western border (FCA Chop) declined by $5 to $233/t amid logistical challenges but remain competitive internationally; Ukraine exported 898,000 tonnes of corn in early July, mainly to Turkey, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Egypt.

• Milling wheat and feed wheat prices at CPT Odesa held steady at $200/t and $190/t respectively, with wheat market activity subdued due to export uncertainties and increased premiums for grain shipped from safer Romanian and Bulgarian ports.

• Exporters continue redirecting shipments through European land border crossings and Danube River ports due to Black Sea port closures, but these alternatives offer lower capacity and significantly higher freight costs, pressuring margins and limiting volumes.

• Ukraine’s cooperatives face difficulties exporting rapeseed and soybeans duty-free because of issues with the DAR certification system, impacting small farmers who rely on cooperatives to avoid the 10% export duty and secure better prices.

• Rapeseed prices at Ukrainian processing plants declined by $12 to $547.5/t amid export uncertainties and limited opportunities for vegetable oil and meal shipments; domestic crushers lowered procurement prices further by UAH 500/t ($470-490/t excluding VAT).

• Sunflower seed prices dropped by $5 to $685/t at processing facilities, reflecting damaged export infrastructure and suspended terminal operations in key Black Sea ports.

• Growing domestic rapeseed supplies and export restrictions are driving increased processing volumes in Ukraine despite negative margins for farmers, with the Agriculture Ministry discussing support measures including compensation and storage solutions.

• Global wheat futures on Euronext surged amid escalating Black Sea conflict, with September wheat up nearly 7%, reflecting concerns over further export disruptions from Ukraine and Russia.

• Black Sea shipping disruptions are increasing logistical risks and freight costs worldwide, contributing to higher volatility in wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and vegetable oil markets, especially in regions dependent on Ukrainian and Russian supplies.