SPIKE Context

• Black Sea port attacks and shipping suspensions continue to disrupt Ukraine's grain exports, pushing shipments to overland routes and alternative ports.

• Corn and wheat prices at Odesa ports declined slightly amid logistical uncertainties, while oilseed processing prices show mixed trends with sunflower seed and GMO soy rising, rapeseed weakening.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa fell to $200/t (-$3), with FCA Chop prices down $5 to $228/t reflecting logistical challenges and reduced export volumes.

• Milling wheat prices at CPT Odesa dropped $2 to $198/t, feed wheat also down $2 to $188/t, pressured by cautious buyer activity and higher premiums for shipments via Romania and Bulgaria.

• Ukraine's grain exports surpassed 2 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year as of July 22, doubling year-on-year, but export flows face disruption from port strikes and vessel suspensions.

• Exporters are increasingly diverting grain shipments to Danube ports and western border crossings due to ongoing Black Sea port attacks and damaged infrastructure, including at Kernel's Chornomorsk terminal.

• Sunflower seed processing prices increased by $5 to $690/t CPT Crush, supported by firm international sunflower oil bids despite limited physical market demand in Ukraine.

• GMO soybean processing prices rose $5 to $445/t CPT Crush, while non-GMO soybean export prices remained stable at $440-$480/t depending on delivery terms, with FCA Chop non-GMO soybean prices up $15 to $480/t.

• Rapeseed processing prices declined by $12 to $547.5/t CPT Crush, reflecting domestic crushers having largely covered their needs through October and limited export opportunities amid logistical constraints.

• Rapeseed export prices at CPT Odesa held steady at $530/t, but FCA Chop prices fell $5 to $575/t amid expectations of price softening once export demand for upcoming shipment windows is met.

• Ukraine’s cooperatives face difficulties exporting rapeseed and soybeans duty-free due to DAR system issues, impacting small farmers who rely on cooperatives for better export prices and duty exemptions.

• Domestic rapeseed market pressure persists as farmers face losses estimated at $70/t, leading to minimal sales beyond operational needs and calls for state support and compensation measures.

• Global wheat and vegetable oil markets remain volatile due to Black Sea export disruptions, with buyers favoring safer shipment routes through Romania and Bulgaria despite higher costs.

• Indian sunflower oil prices rose slightly amid reduced supply from Ukraine and Russia, while Russian exporters attempt to maximize sales of old crop residues at elevated prices ahead of expected record harvests.

• Logistical risks from ongoing military activity in the Black Sea are the primary concern for global grain and oilseed trade, with potential for further price volatility if disruptions continue.