SPIKE Context

• Black Sea port attacks and shipping suspensions continue to disrupt Ukraine's grain and oilseed exports, forcing a shift to overland routes and Danube ports.

• Export volumes remain resilient with over 2 million tons of grains shipped in the 2026/27 marketing year so far, but logistical risks are elevating premiums and limiting export pace.

• Domestic rapeseed prices decline amid export difficulties and crushers covering needs through October, pressuring farmer margins.

• Ukraine's corn export price at CPT Odesa holds steady at $200/t, but FCA Chop prices fell by $5 to $223/t reflecting logistical challenges inland.

• Despite Black Sea disruptions, Ukraine exported 898 thousand tons of corn in early July, mainly to Turkey, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Egypt.

• Wheat export prices remain stable at $198/t CPT Odesa, with feed wheat at $188/t; however, export activity is subdued due to port strikes and increased risk premiums.

• Ukraine's total grain exports surpassed 2.089 million tons by July 22, more than doubling last year's pace, supported by alternative routes.

• Sunflower seed processing prices remain unchanged at $690/t CPT Crush, but physical market purchases are limited by low buyer demand amid export uncertainties.

• Rapeseed non-GMO processing prices declined by $12 to $547.5/t CPT Crush, with export prices stable at $530/t CPT Odesa but FCA Chop prices down $5 to $570/t.

• Domestic crushers have largely secured rapeseed through October, reducing procurement prices by about UAH 500/t ($470-490/t), reflecting limited export opportunities and growing supplies.

• Soybean export prices are stable at $430-$440/t CPT Odesa, but FCA Chop prices declined by $5-$10, indicating some pressure from logistics and demand.

• Sunflower oil offers at Danube ports stand at $1,380-1,385/t FOB, while Indian bids rose slightly amid reduced supply from Ukraine and Russia.

• Exporters and cooperatives face challenges with the DAR certification system, limiting duty-free rapeseed and soybean exports and pressuring small farmers' market access.

• Major agricultural companies continue securing export contracts for September-October through western borders at $575–585/t for rapeseed, though prices may soften as demand saturates.

• Major shipping firms have suspended calls at Ukrainian Black Sea ports following missile and drone strikes, severely disrupting grain loading and export operations.

• Grain exports are increasingly rerouted via Danube ports (Izmail, Reni, Kilia) and western railway border crossings (Chop, Uzhgorod, Mostyska), with rail traffic volumes rising.

• Danube freight rates are rapidly increasing due to limited vessel availability and port suspensions in the Greater Odesa region.

• Buyers are paying premiums for shipments via Romania and Bulgaria ports, considered safer despite higher costs, reflecting elevated execution risk.

• Harvest progress includes over 200 thousand tons of early grains collected in Ivano-Frankivsk region and completion of winter wheat harvest by Prometey Group in Mykolaiv region.

• Average wheat yields in Kharkiv region stand at 4.64 t/ha as of late July, supported by recent machinery deliveries aiding harvest operations.

• Escalating Black Sea conflict is heightening global grain market volatility, with logistics disruptions threatening supplies of Ukrainian and Russian wheat, corn, and sunflower oil.

• Russian port strikes and Ukrainian counterattacks have severely limited Russian grain exports via the Sea of Azov, while Ukraine faces export bottlenecks at its deepwater ports.

• Global wheat prices have risen on supply concerns, but Ukraine's internal prices remain stable amid subdued export activity and logistical constraints.