SPIKE Context

• Corn, wheat, and soybeans prices in Ukraine declined slightly on profit-taking amid ongoing export disruptions.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa held steady at $200/t, while FCA Chop prices dropped by $5 to $223/t reflecting logistical challenges.

• Milling wheat prices remained stable at $198/t CPT Odesa with feed wheat at $188/t, unchanged from previous levels.

• Harvest progress continues with localized yields reported by Agrotrade, but export flows are severely constrained.

• Sunflower seed prices at CPT Crush held firm at $690/t despite export bottlenecks.

• GMO soybean processing prices edged up $3 to $448/t, while export prices at Odesa remained flat at $430/t; FCA Chop prices declined by $5.

• Non-GMO soybean FCA Chop prices fell $10 to $470/t, with port prices steady at $440/t.

• Rapeseed processing prices dropped $12 to $547.5/t, and FCA Chop export prices decreased by $5 to $570/t, reflecting weaker demand and export difficulties.

• Export capacity through Black Sea ports has dropped by one third due to intensified Russian missile and drone attacks on port infrastructure and vessels.

• Kernel Holding suspended operations at its Chornomorsk terminals after losing significant volumes of wheat (45,000 tons) and sunflower oil (9,000 tons) plus damage to loading equipment and power infrastructure.

• From July 22, no commercial vessels entered Ukrainian Black Sea ports at the peak of the wheat harvest, with shipping companies suspending calls amid security concerns.

• Export flows are partially redirected through Danube River ports and onward shipments via Romania, but volumes remain limited.

• Market participants report a sharp reduction in grain truck shipments to sea terminals to avoid congestion and wagon buildup at port hubs.

• Ukraine’s cooperatives face export certification issues for rapeseed and soybeans, limiting duty-free exports and pressuring domestic prices.

• Russian strikes on civilian vessels and port infrastructure in the Odesa region have killed dozens, escalating tensions and disrupting one of the world’s key grain export corridors.

• International condemnation from Britain and France at the UN Security Council highlights the threat to global food security posed by ongoing attacks on Ukrainian ports.

• The Black Sea conflict is increasing uncertainty and volatility in global grain, corn, wheat, and vegetable oil markets, with buyers seeking alternative sources amid prolonged export interruptions.