SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export capacity has dropped by about one third due to intensified Russian missile and drone attacks on ports and infrastructure, severely disrupting logistics at peak harvest.

• Corn and wheat exports are increasingly diverted from Black Sea ports to western border crossings and Danube river ports, though these alternative routes have limited capacity and cannot fully compensate for port closures.

• Domestic forward prices for sunflower seed crushing have declined sharply by $150-200/t amid oversupply risks caused by export bottlenecks.

• Rapeseed processing in Ukraine reached record highs in MY 2025/26, exceeding 1.3 million tons and accounting for 42% of the harvest, supported by higher export duties that incentivize domestic crushing.

• Ukrainian farmers warn of risks including mass bankruptcies and sowing disruptions due to the ongoing shutdown of marine agricultural exports.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa remain stable at $200/t, but logistical constraints and port shutdowns are pressuring domestic corn markets with rising carryover stocks.

• Wheat export prices hold steady at $198/t CPT Odesa, but exports face the largest impact from Black Sea port closures, with flows redirected to Danube ports and western borders.

• Ukraine’s largest corn crop in five years is expected this season, but some producers may leave corn unharvested until spring 2027 due to storage and logistics challenges, risking quality deterioration.

• Sunflower seed prices at crushing plants remain unchanged at $690/t CPT Crush, yet forward prices have dropped significantly due to export bottlenecks and oversupply concerns.

• Rapeseed non-GMO processing prices steady at $548/t CPT Crush, with domestic processing volumes at record levels driven by export duty hikes.

• Rapeseed export prices stand at $530/t CPT Odesa, with some contracts postponed until 2027 amid market uncertainty.

• Soybean export prices remain stable around $430-470/t CPT Odesa and FCA Chop, supported by steady European demand despite export system certification issues affecting cooperatives.

• Higher export duties on rapeseed have shifted processing towards domestic crushing, boosting rapeseed oil production to a record 380,470 tons in 2025.

• Export certification system issues limit cooperatives’ ability to export rapeseed and soybeans duty-free, impacting small farmers’ access to better export prices.

• International demand for Ukrainian wheat remains strong despite port shutdowns, with part of exports rerouted through Danube ports and onward shipments via Romania.

• The ongoing conflict and attacks in the Black Sea region are causing global grain market volatility, with increased freight costs, delivery delays, and regional price disparities.

• Ukraine’s Black Sea ports handle about 90% of its commodity exports, making the suspension of ship calls a major disruption for global wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and fertilizer supply chains.

• Global buyers across North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia face uncertainty as Ukraine’s export logistics remain constrained by military actions.