SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export capacity through Black Sea ports remains severely constrained due to ongoing Russian attacks, reducing monthly shipping capacity from 6 million to 4 million tons and causing a 17% drop in wheat and corn exports in early July.

• Domestic grain prices in Ukraine have softened amid port shutdowns, with corn at $200/t CPT Odesa and food wheat at $198/t CPT Odesa, reflecting growing logistical bottlenecks and oversupply risks.

• Alternative export routes via Danube ports and western borders are partially compensating for Black Sea port closures but have limited capacity and cannot fully offset lost volumes.

• Wheat exports from Black Sea ports started the new marketing year strongly but face growing disruption risks as port operations are suspended and shipping companies avoid Ukrainian grain terminals.

• Corn trade is shifting westward due to port closures, with some producers considering leaving corn unharvested until spring 2027, potentially impacting quality despite an expected large crop.

• Domestic feed wheat prices remain stable at $185/t CPT Odesa, but forward prices and export prospects are pressured by logistics constraints and rising carryover stocks.

• Sunflower seed prices at Ukrainian crushing plants declined by $10/t to $680/t CPT Crush, pressured by export delays and oversupply risks linked to port shutdowns.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices hold steady at $540/t CPT Crush, with domestic processing reaching record levels in 2025/26, supported by higher export duties and stable European demand.

• Soybean export prices show mixed signals: non-GMO soybean CPT Odesa rose by $10 to $450/t, while GMO soybean FCA Chop declined by $5 to $445/t, reflecting varied demand and logistical challenges.

• India is actively seeking substitutes for Ukrainian sunflower oil due to supply delays of up to 60 days, increasing imports of Argentine products and other vegetable oils like palm, soybean, and rapeseed.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed oil production reached a record 1.3 million tons in MY 2025/26, driven by expanded domestic processing amid export restrictions and higher export duties on rapeseed.

• Sunflower crushing faces risks of raw material oversupply as forward prices at crushing plants have dropped by $150-200/t due to export bottlenecks and port closures.

• The wheat, barley, and rapeseed harvests are underway with limited immediate impact from port suspensions, while maize and sunflower harvests will start in autumn, potentially affected by logistics constraints.

• Ukrainian farmers warn of risks including mass bankruptcies and sowing disruptions caused by the ongoing shutdown of marine agricultural exports through Black Sea ports.

• Ukraine’s main grain export markets remain Turkey, Egypt, and Italy, with shifting trade flows due to logistical disruptions.

• Global wheat prices have risen on Black Sea export disruptions, while U.S. soybean and corn futures declined amid profit-taking and improved weather forecasts in key growing regions.

• Argentina’s record corn harvest and increased soymeal exports add competitive pressure on Ukraine’s export volumes amid logistical challenges.

• The Black Sea conflict continues to threaten global food security by disrupting Ukraine’s role as a major exporter of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and fertilizer to North Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia.