SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export capacity has dropped by about one-third due to ongoing missile and drone attacks on port infrastructure and vessels, severely limiting shipments of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil.

• Domestic prices for corn and oilseeds have declined amid logistics bottlenecks and rising costs for alternative export routes via western borders and Danube ports.

• Sunflower seed processing prices fell sharply by $70/t to $610/t CPT Crush, reflecting oversupply risks and export constraints.

• Rapeseed processing prices dropped $40/t to $500/t CPT Crush, while non-GMO rapeseed export prices remain stable at $520/t CPT Odesa but rose slightly at FCA Chop (+$14/t).

• GMO and non-GMO soybean prices declined by $10-$30/t across export and processing bases, pressured by falling rapeseed and sunflower prices and logistics challenges.

• Ukrainian milling wheat prices held steady at $195/t CPT Odesa despite export disruptions, supported by global wheat price gains amid Black Sea tensions.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa declined by $5/t to $195/t, pressured by port shutdowns and rising carryover stocks due to export delays.

• Feed wheat prices remained stable at $185/t CPT Odesa, reflecting limited export volumes and subdued domestic demand.

• Wheat exports are facing the largest impact from Black Sea port closures, with shipments capped near 0.5-0.6 million tons monthly against a 43-million-ton seasonal forecast.

• Exporters are increasingly diverting grain shipments to Danube ports, but these cannot fully compensate for the loss of deep-water Black Sea terminals.

• Sunflower seed prices at processing plants dropped by $70/t to $610/t CPT Crush due to export bottlenecks and potential oversupply of raw material.

• Rapeseed harvest prospects improved slightly with a forecast increase to 3.5 MMT in 2026, but domestic prices fell 15-20% in hryvnia terms amid export uncertainties.

• Soybean prices declined following rapeseed and sunflower price drops, with ex-factory prices falling to UAH 18,000-19,000/t despite low old crop stocks.

• India is actively seeking substitutes for Black Sea sunflower oil amid supply delays of up to 60 days, increasing imports of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils.

• Black Sea port closures and ongoing attacks have embedded a structural risk premium in Ukrainian wheat prices, expected to persist through August.

• Insurance costs, rather than tonnage availability, are becoming the main pressure point for Ukrainian grain exports.

• European markets maintain stable demand for rapeseed and soybeans, supporting these oilseeds despite domestic price declines.

• Nearly all of Ukraine’s sunflower seed crop (13.5 MMT) is expected to be crushed domestically, with exports capped at around 40,000 tonnes due to port restrictions.

• Forward prices at crushing plants for sunflower oil have dropped by $150-200/t, signaling oversupply and subdued export prospects.

• Increasing logistics costs for alternative export routes across western borders continue to pressure domestic oilseed and soybean prices downward.