SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain export volumes continue to decline year-on-year, with wheat exports down to 4.4 million tonnes and corn to 3.5 million tonnes so far this season, reflecting ongoing logistical and geopolitical challenges.

• Russian attacks on Odesa and Danube port infrastructure have intensified, disrupting maritime grain shipments and raising concerns over Ukraine’s export capacity and global food security.

• Domestic processing demand for rapeseed has softened as crushers have built sufficient raw material stocks, leading to lower indicative purchase prices around 19–20 thousand UAH/t CPT plant.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa remain stable at $195/t, while FCA Chop prices declined by $5/t to $220/t, pressured by logistical constraints and shifting export routes.

• Wheat export prices at CPT Odesa hold steady at $195/t for milling wheat and $185/t for feed wheat, amid balanced global price signals and weak Black Sea offers.

• Ukrainian wheat exports are forecast to rise to 17 million tonnes in 2025/26, up from 13.5 million tonnes currently, but recent port attacks threaten shipment volumes.

• Sunflower seed processing prices dropped sharply by $130/t to $550/t CPT crush, reflecting reduced 2025 crop size (10.5–11 million tons) and logistical disruptions.

• Rapeseed non-GMO processing prices fell $40/t to $500/t CPT crush, with export prices also down $20/t at CPT Odesa to $500/t, pressured by lower demand from processors and export duty measures.

• GMO soybean processing prices declined by $30/t to $420/t CPT crush, while export prices remain stable at $420/t CPT Odesa; FCA Chop prices edged up by $5–10/t.

• Ukrainian sunflower oil prices reached a seasonal peak near $1,370–1,385/t in early July but export volumes have fallen to a two-year low due to port disruptions and increased export duties on Russian competitors.

• The Ukrainian government has temporarily lowered minimum export prices for grains and oilseeds by applying a 0.714 coefficient to prevent export suspensions amid maritime logistics challenges.

• Spain has overtaken Poland as the largest buyer of Ukrainian rapeseed oil, coinciding with record domestic rapeseed processing volumes exceeding 1.3 million tonnes (42% of harvest).

• Ukrainian farmers are adapting to moisture deficits by changing silage corn cultivation strategies, including deploying multiple hybrids to mitigate drought impact in Cherkasy region.

• Rapeseed crushers report reduced demand due to ample raw material stocks, leading to lower indicative purchase prices despite stable working procurement prices.

• QP Foods UK, a major Ukrainian-based oil processor and exporter, reports rising sunflower oil costs linked to Black Sea shipping disruptions, impacting global supply chains.

• Russian strikes on Danube river port infrastructure have heightened fears of further disruptions to Ukraine’s grain export routes, causing global wheat and corn futures to spike.

• The Black Sea region accounts for about 30% of global wheat exports; ongoing attacks on Ukrainian ports risk exacerbating global food security concerns, especially for North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

• Ukrainian grain exports have shifted increasingly to Danube and Romanian ports, but their limited capacity (up to 1.5 million tons/month) cannot fully compensate for reduced throughput at Odesa cluster ports handling 85% of seaborne exports.