SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain prices remain stable at export terminals despite ongoing Black Sea port disruptions, with corn and milling wheat steady at $195/t CPT Odesa.

• Export logistics continue to face severe challenges due to repeated Russian missile strikes on Black Sea ports, halting commercial vessel movements for nearly two weeks.

• Alternative export routes via Danube River ports and western land borders are operational but constrained by capacity and infrastructure limitations.

• Corn and milling wheat prices held steady at $195/t CPT Odesa with no change reported, reflecting subdued demand amid export bottlenecks.

• Feed wheat prices remain at $185/t CPT Odesa, with farmers reluctant to sell at current levels due to poor competitiveness on global markets.

• Export volumes have slowed significantly as grain accumulates at inland storage, pressured by port closures and rising logistics costs.

• Sunflower seed processing prices stable at $680/t CPT Crush, with exports limited by port disruptions and constrained shipping options.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices steady at $500/t CPT Odesa export basis; domestic processing expected to absorb larger volumes due to export difficulties.

• Soybean prices unchanged, with GMO soybean at $420/t CPT Odesa export and non-GMO soybean at $440/t CPT Odesa export, reflecting stagnant export demand.

• Harvesting of wheat and lentils continues in southern regions, with yields varying by field; however, ongoing conflict and attacks on farm machinery impact operations.

• Ukraine’s 2026 grain and oilseed harvest forecast remains robust but export potential is capped by logistical constraints and port closures.

• Ukraine introduced a 0.714 coefficient for minimum export prices on grains and oilseeds to stabilize domestic markets amid export disruptions.

• Demand from multinational traders has weakened, contributing to a 5-6 USD/t decline in grain prices since late 2025, driven by global competitiveness issues.

• Domestic processing of rapeseed and sunflower seed is expected to increase as export routes remain blocked, supporting local crushing margins.

• Grain feed demand is steady but limited by farmer withholding due to low export prices and high logistics costs.

• Global wheat prices are elevated due to Black Sea tensions and regional droughts, but Ukraine’s export volumes are constrained by port blockades and infrastructure bottlenecks.

• Ukraine’s share of global wheat and corn exports remains significant but is under pressure from logistical disruptions and Russian attacks on maritime routes.

• Rail and river export corridors to Romania’s Constanța port and western borders provide partial relief but cannot fully compensate for Black Sea port closures.

• Maersk launched a temporary rail service linking Ukrainian terminals (Odesa, Kyiv, Ternopil) with the Romanian port of Constanța to facilitate exports until at least October 2026.