SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain export volumes continue to face severe constraints due to ongoing Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and Danube river infrastructure, limiting maritime shipments and forcing reliance on alternative routes.

• Export prices for major grains and oilseeds remain stable at CPT Odesa and FCA Chop levels, reflecting market uncertainty and logistical bottlenecks.

• Corn export price steady at 195 USD/t CPT Odesa, unchanged amid constrained export capacity.

• Milling wheat price stable at 195 USD/t CPT Odesa, with no price movement despite export challenges.

• Feed wheat holds at 185 USD/t CPT Odesa, reflecting subdued demand and export delays.

• Ukrainian wheat exports have surpassed 10 million tons in the current marketing year but overall grain exports are down 21% compared to last season due to port blockades.

• Sunflower seed processing price remains at 680 USD/t CPT Crush, unchanged as processing demand holds steady.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices stable at 540 USD/t CPT Crush and 500 USD/t CPT Odesa export, with no recent price shifts.

• GMO and non-GMO soybean prices unchanged at processing and export points, indicating steady market conditions despite export route disruptions.

• No new weather-related updates impacting Ukraine’s crop conditions or harvest prospects reported for the day.

• Ukraine is urgently negotiating with the EU and Turkey to restore grain export corridors amid ongoing Black Sea port blockades.

• Alternative export routes via rail, road, and Danube River remain operational but face capacity constraints and low water levels, limiting throughput to about one-third of Black Sea port volumes.

• Direct losses to Ukraine’s agricultural sector from port blockades and export disruptions estimated between $1.5 billion and $3 billion for the year.

• Domestic processing of oilseeds continues at stable prices, with no reported disruptions in crush facilities.

• Farmers face reduced grain prices at origin due to higher transportation costs and limited export options, with some selling wheat below production cost.

• Global wheat and corn futures reacted to Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, with price volatility driven by export uncertainty.

• Ukraine remains a key global supplier, accounting for about 6% of world wheat exports and 11% of corn exports, underscoring the international impact of export route disruptions.