SPIKE Context

• Ukraine's grain export potential for the 2026/27 season is estimated at around 52 million tons of grains and oilseeds, contingent on full operation of deepwater ports.

• Export logistics remain a critical bottleneck due to ongoing Black Sea attacks and port blockades, causing significant export losses estimated between $1.5 billion and $3 billion this year.

• Ukrainian wheat export demand has nearly vanished amid global price declines and logistical constraints, with export volumes down sharply in July to 3.67 million tons, a 23.4% decrease from June.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa remain steady at $195/t, reflecting stable but constrained market conditions.

• Ukraine exported 2.36 million tons of wheat to African markets (mainly Algeria and Egypt) in the first eight months of 2025/26, but new shipments face rising shipping risks and higher costs.

• Sunflower seed prices in Ukraine have plunged as crushing activity slows and processors shift focus to rapeseed due to better margins amid export constraints.

• Sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region are declining, supporting sunflower and palm oil prices globally, but increased soybean oil supplies and lower crude oil prices limit overall vegetable oil price gains.

• Domestic demand for soybeans is rising, lifting CPT crush prices to $450/t, while export sales through western borders face pressure.

• Rapeseed prices remain stable at $540/t CPT crush and $500/t CPT Odesa export, with processors favoring rapeseed over sunflower seeds.

• Ukraine introduced a 0.714 coefficient for minimum export prices on grains and oilseeds in August 2026, aiming to regulate export price floors amid market volatility.

• Export demand for Ukrainian wheat is subdued due to global oversupply and logistical challenges, impacting price dynamics and shipment volumes.

• Extreme heat in southern Ukraine has accelerated sunflower ripening, advancing the harvest timeline by 2–3 weeks without immediate yield losses but posing risks if moisture stress occurs during flowering and seed filling.

• Reduced crush demand for old-crop sunflower seeds and export logistics constraints are forcing price adjustments downward domestically, with processors shifting capacity to rapeseed.

• Soybean processing demand supports domestic prices despite export pressures, indicating a pivot towards internal market channels.

• Escalating attacks on Black Sea ports and shipping infrastructure by Russia and Ukraine are disrupting grain exports, raising global shipping costs and increasing market uncertainty.

• Algeria raised its wheat purchase price sharply amid shipping risks, showing regional importers' sensitivity to logistics disruptions affecting Ukrainian grain availability.