SPIKE Context

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa declined by $5 to $190/t amid ongoing logistical constraints.

• Wheat export prices remain stable at $195/t for milling wheat and $185/t for feed wheat at CPT Odesa.

• Soybean processing prices rose slightly by $5 to $425/t, while export prices for GMO and non-GMO soybeans held steady.

• Rapeseed processing prices dropped by $10 to $490/t, with FCA Chop export prices up by $5 to $550/t.

• Sunflower seed prices at processing level remain unchanged at $550/t despite market pressures.

• Ukraine’s export demand for wheat has nearly vanished amid global oversupply and port disruptions, keeping export prices flat.

• Corn export prices softened due to reduced port shipments and increased competition from alternative routes.

• FAS USDA lowered Ukraine’s 2026/27 grain export forecast significantly, cutting corn to 14 million tons (-39%) and wheat to 10.8 million tons (-25%).

• July agro-exports dropped by 23.4% month-on-month to 3.67 million tons, reflecting ongoing export bottlenecks.

• Ukraine exported 2.36 million tons of wheat to African markets (mainly Algeria and Egypt) in the first eight months of 2025/26 season.

• Sunflower seed prices are sliding due to early harvest accelerated by extreme heat and constrained export logistics, pressuring local prices.

• Processors are shifting crush capacity from sunflower seed to rapeseed, supported by improved margins from lower rapeseed prices.

• Domestic soybean demand is rising, lifting CPT plant prices to $450/t, while export sales via western borders face pressure.

• Rapeseed export prices at FCA Chop increased by $5 to $550/t, but processing prices declined by $10 to $490/t.

• Lower Black Sea sunflower oil exports continue to support global sunflower and palm oil prices, despite expanded soybean oil supplies globally.

• Extreme heat in southern Ukraine has accelerated sunflower ripening, advancing harvest by 2–3 weeks without immediate yield losses.

• Prolonged temperatures above 30–32°C combined with moisture stress remain a risk for sunflower yields during flowering and seed filling stages.

• Sunflower crushing activity is slowing as processors reduce interest in old-crop seeds, awaiting new crop arrivals.

• Rapeseed crushing margins improved due to price declines, prompting most processors to switch from sunflower to rapeseed.

• Increased domestic soybean processing demand supports higher plant-level prices amid export challenges.

• Ukraine introduced a 0.714 coefficient for minimum export prices on grains and oilseeds in August 2026, aiming to stabilize export revenues.

• Alternative export routes via western borders and Danube ports remain insufficient to compensate for lost Black Sea port capacity.

• Export logistics costs for Ukrainian grain have risen 1.5 to 2.5 times due to loss of maritime routes and ongoing attacks on shipping infrastructure.

• Rail grain deliveries to Odesa ports have decreased more than sixfold, with some flows redirected to western borders and Danube, but overall export volumes remain severely constrained.

• Escalating attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels by Russia and Ukraine disrupt global grain shipments, raising transportation costs and market uncertainty.

• Ukraine’s role as a global supplier of wheat (6% of global exports) and corn (11%) is under threat due to port blockades and infrastructure damage.

• Global wheat prices are supported by supply bottlenecks in the Black Sea region despite abundant harvests in Russia and other producers.