SPIKE Context

• Ukraine's grain export volumes are sharply constrained by ongoing Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, causing a collapse of port shipments by 84% and forcing exporters to rely heavily on limited-capacity alternative routes via rail, road, and the Danube River.

• USDA forecasts project a 39% decline in Ukraine's corn exports and a 26% drop in wheat exports for the 2026-27 marketing year due to port disruptions.

• Grain companies face financial strain, with only about 25% able to withstand a full season of restricted exports without external support.

• Ukrainian corn export prices remain stable at $190/t CPT Odesa and $220/t FCA Chop, despite logistical bottlenecks and export volume declines.

• Harvest progress continues with nearly 29.4 million tonnes of early grains and oilseeds collected as of August 10, including 19.7 million tonnes of wheat, supporting supply availability.

• Export volumes are falling sharply, with rail shipments to ports down more than sixfold and a significant shift of grain flows to western borders and Danube ports.

• Sunflower seed processing prices hold steady at $470/t CPT Crush, but forward prices at extraction plants have dropped by $150–200/t amid oversupply risks due to export logjams.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices remain stable at $490/t CPT Crush and $500/t CPT Odesa export, with production forecasts lowered due to poor wintering and area shifts to sunflower and corn.

• Black Sea port operations remain effectively halted with no agreements reached on reopening Ukrainian and Russian deep-sea ports, prolonging export disruptions.

• Record-low water levels on the Danube are reducing barge load capacities, increasing freight costs, and limiting the ability to reroute grain exports through Constanta, Romania.

• Rail and Danube combined can only handle about one-third of the throughput of Black Sea ports, causing severe logistical bottlenecks and long queues at western border crossings.

• No new adverse weather reports; harvest continues steadily with increased production forecasts for corn and sunflower due to area shifts from rapeseed.

• No new trade policy changes reported for Ukraine; however, Russia has sharply increased export duties on its wheat, potentially affecting regional trade dynamics.

• Global wheat and corn futures remain firm with some volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns from the Black Sea region, supporting Ukraine's price levels despite export challenges.