SPIKE Context

• Black Sea port strikes and ongoing maritime conflict continue to severely restrict Ukraine’s grain exports, with wheat shipments down 18% year-to-date and overall grain exports in early August down 76% year-on-year.

• Domestic grain and oilseed prices have softened by roughly 30% amid export logjams and abundant stocks in storage, pressuring farmer selling prices below production costs in some cases.

• Alternative export routes via Danube River ports and rail are operating near capacity but can only handle about half of pre-conflict volumes, causing logistical bottlenecks and rising freight rates.

• Wheat export forecasts have been halved to 8.3 million tons for the 2026/27 marketing year due to Black Sea port closures and Russian strikes on Odesa, sharply limiting Ukraine’s global supply role.

• Corn exports have declined even more steeply than wheat in August, tightening feed grain availability for key importers in the EU, Middle East, and North Africa.

• Demand prices for food wheat at Danube ports have risen by $1–4/t this week amid tight farmer supply and logistical constraints.

• Sunflower seed prices have dropped by UAH 7,000–8,000/t over the past month to UAH 25,000–27,000/t delivered to crushing plants, pressured by export disruptions and southern plant shutdowns.

• New-crop sunflower seed prices are indicated lower at UAH 19,000–20,000/t, with processors shifting crush capacity toward rapeseed due to better margins and supply conditions.

• Rapeseed supply is expanding with stronger domestic crushing prospects, supporting stable prices despite logistical challenges.

• Soybean export potential is declining due to reduced planted area despite yield improvements, with domestic crushing demand remaining important.

• Black Sea ports Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny have been largely idle for three weeks, halving Ukraine’s grain export capacity and forcing a rapid shift to Danube and rail logistics.

• Danube River barge rotations are reduced, waiting times longer, and freight rates elevated above seasonal norms, straining this vital alternative export corridor.

• Combined capacity of rail, road, and Danube routes covers only 50–55% of pre-conflict export volumes, creating a significant bottleneck for Ukraine’s agricultural shipments.

• Ukraine is prioritizing higher-value crops such as rapeseed and vegetable oils for rail exports amid Black Sea port shutdowns, while grain exports face severe constraints.

• European protectionism and drought conditions on alternative routes add complexity to Ukraine’s export challenges, with some EU countries reluctant to increase imports due to domestic farmer concerns.

• Sunflower harvest is advancing early due to extreme heat, accelerating ripening and pulling the campaign forward by 2–3 weeks, contributing to falling prices and bearish market sentiment.

• Ukrainian crushers are increasingly switching from sunflower to rapeseed crushing, attracted by low domestic rapeseed prices and better margins amid supply and export disruptions.

• Domestic crushing remains a key outlet for soybeans as export potential declines, supporting steady demand in processing sectors.