SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export forecast is downgraded amid intensified Russian attacks on Black Sea ports, severely disrupting shipments from Odesa and neighboring harbors.

• Sunflower seed prices have plunged nearly one-third within days due to export blockades and processing plant shutdowns.

• Processors have largely halted sunflower seed purchases, shifting focus to rapeseed amid export and logistics challenges.

• Ukraine’s grain exports through ports have collapsed by over 80%, with rail and Danube river routes partially compensating but insufficient to offset losses.

• Corn export price stable at $190/t CPT Odesa; however, export volumes are sharply curtailed by port disruptions.

• Wheat export forecast for 2026/27 marketing year cut by USDA by 1 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes due to ongoing export constraints.

• August grain exports have fallen 76% year-on-year, with wheat shipments down 18.3% and corn exports up 66.4% but from a much lower base.

• Rail deliveries to Odesa ports have dropped more than sixfold, forcing reorientation of grain flows to western borders and Danube routes.

• Sunflower seed stocks near 1 million tonnes as of early August; processing remains the main outlet amid minimal exports (39 thousand tonnes).

• Sunflower seed prices dropped from UAH 26,500–27,000/t on August 7 to UAH 19,300–19,700/t by August 11, reflecting export logjams and processing halts.

• Rapeseed prices are rising despite global oilseed balance improvements, supported by a shift in processing plants from sunflower to rapeseed.

• Soybean stocks stand at 560 thousand tonnes; domestic processing absorbs a significant share of the harvest amid export difficulties.

• Sunflower oil FOB offers for August delivery hover at $1,380–1,400/t, pressured by declining Black Sea supplies and rising logistics risks.

• Ukraine has proposed a deal to Russia to halt attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea, aiming to reopen vital grain corridors.

• EU is reviewing Ukraine’s request for financial aid to support harvest, storage, and export logistics amid ongoing export disruptions.

• Black Sea remains a critical chokepoint for global grain trade; escalating attacks disrupt shipments from both Ukraine and Russia, raising global supply concerns.

• Record-low Danube water levels further strain alternative export routes, compounding export challenges for Ukrainian grain.

• Global soybean exports are stable as reduced Ukrainian shipments are offset by increased exports from Argentina.

• Ukraine’s shift from bulk grain exports to higher-value oilseeds and meals reshapes trade flows and price dynamics amid port blockades.