SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain exports remain severely constrained by ongoing Russian attacks on Black Sea ports, with export volumes collapsing by over 80%.

• Domestic processing shifts are evident as sunflower seed purchases by Ukrainian crushers have largely halted amid export difficulties and a pivot to rapeseed processing.

• Ukrainian corn export price at CPT Odesa holds steady at 190 USD/t, reflecting stable but limited export flows.

• Milling wheat and feed wheat export prices remain unchanged at 195 USD/t and 185 USD/t respectively, despite sharply reduced shipments through Black Sea ports.

• Export forecasts for Ukrainian grain have been downgraded due to intensified Russian strikes on southern ports, further restricting seaborne shipments.

• Rail and Danube river routes are increasingly relied upon, but face capacity and water-level constraints, limiting alternative export options.

• Sunflower seed processing prices steady at 440 USD/t CPT Crush, but domestic crushers have largely stopped buying new supplies amid export blockades and market uncertainty.

• Rapeseed processing gains attention with prices steady at 485 USD/t CPT Crush as plants shift focus from sunflower seed.

• Soybean prices stable at 425 USD/t CPT Crush for processing and 420-470 USD/t for export basis CPT Odesa and FCA Chop.

• Sunflower seed stocks remain high near 1 million tonnes, with minimal exports and strong orientation towards domestic processing.

• Sunflower oil FOB offers for August delivery are pressured by declining Black Sea supplies and rising logistics risks, quoted around 1,380-1,400 USD/t FOB.

• Ukraine has proposed a deal to Russia aiming to halt attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea to reopen crucial grain export corridors, but hostilities continue to disrupt shipments.

• Export volumes of grains and oilseeds are sharply down, with August grain exports falling by 76% year-on-year and port shipments collapsing by 84%.

• Ukrainian processors are adapting to export challenges by increasing domestic crushing of oilseeds, particularly rapeseed, to mitigate reliance on blocked maritime routes.

• Significant volumes of sunflower seed and soybean harvests remain on the domestic market for processing rather than export.

• Approximately 20% of Ukrainian agricultural land remains under temporary occupation, with potential grain and oilseed harvests on these lands estimated at over 9 million tonnes for 2026.

• USDA projects Ukraine’s 2026/27 grain production at 30.9 million tonnes with exports at 23 million tonnes, though export disruptions are limiting actual shipments.

• Global oilseed export balances have improved, with reduced Ukrainian exports offset by increased shipments from Argentina and Brazil.

• Black Sea export disruptions contribute to global supply concerns, impacting international grain and oilseed markets and supporting elevated price levels for Ukrainian-origin commodities.