SPIKE Context

• Grain export volumes remain severely constrained by ongoing Black Sea port disruptions, with shipments down approximately 75% year-on-year in early August.

• Domestic grain prices have stabilized at current levels but remain below production costs due to export bottlenecks and accumulating supplies.

• Sunflower seed prices for new crop are trading well below old-crop levels amid export uncertainties and higher anticipated logistics costs.

• Rapeseed exports continue via rail and river routes, supported by strong EU crushing demand and higher unit values, helping to sustain prices.

• Oil exports by rail are active, with nearly 90% moving through western border crossings, reflecting a shift in logistics away from Black Sea ports.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa remain steady at $190/t with no change reported, reflecting limited export activity due to port access issues.

• Wheat milling prices hold at $195/t CPT Odesa, supported by spillover buying interest from global futures amid Black Sea shipping disruptions.

• Feed wheat prices are stable at $185/t CPT Odesa, but domestic market pressure persists from stock accumulation and export delays.

• Ukraine's 2026 grain harvest is nearing completion for early grains, with total grain output reported near 34.6 million tonnes.

• Export forecasts for 2026/27 marketing year have been revised down sharply, with wheat exports expected around 10.8 million tonnes and corn at 14 million tonnes, both significantly below previous estimates.

• Alternative export routes via the Danube and EU are being utilized but incur additional costs of approximately $70/t, partially offset by higher global prices.

• Sunflower seed prices at CPT Crush remain unchanged at $440/t but new-crop prices are notably below old-crop levels due to export uncertainties and higher future logistics costs.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices steady at $485/t CPT Crush and $500/t CPT Odesa export, supported by ongoing exports via rail and river routes prioritizing higher-value shipments.

• Soybean prices are stable with GMO soybean at $425/t CPT Crush and $420/t CPT Odesa export; non-GMO soybean export prices hold at $440/t CPT Odesa.

• Global soybean exports remain unchanged overall as reduced Ukrainian exports are offset by increased shipments from Argentina.

• Protein meals from soybean and sunflower are increasingly favored in rail export mix, supporting EU feed compounders but potentially tightening supply for distant buyers reliant on bulk vessel shipments.

• Approximately 20% of Ukraine's agricultural land remains under Russian occupation, impacting sowing and harvest potential for key crops including wheat, barley, sunflower, and corn.

• Sowing area estimates: wheat ~1.8 million ha with forecasted harvest of 5.5 million tonnes; barley ~600,000 ha with 1.3 million tonnes forecast; sunflower ~800,000 ha with 1.3 million tonnes forecast; corn ~150,000 ha with ~50,000 tonnes forecast.

• Ukrainian crushers are cautious in purchasing sunflower seed due to export uncertainties and anticipated higher costs for shipping processed products.

• Sunflower oil retains export priority despite volume declines, underpinning regional price levels in Europe, Middle East, and South Asia.

• Rapeseed processing demand remains strong in the EU, supporting Ukrainian rapeseed exports via alternative logistics.

• Global markets partially compensate for Ukraine's export shortfall with increased grain supplies from Russia, USA, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU countries.

• Sunflower oil supply gaps are filled by Russian, Argentine, palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils.

• Heightened Black Sea shipping risks and attacks on ports on both sides have increased global wheat and corn prices by 4-5% recently.

• Russia is redirecting grain exports to Baltic and Caspian Sea ports and land routes due to logistical constraints.

• The Black Sea port conflict has evolved into a reciprocal port war, structurally bullish for wheat markets despite large crops on both sides.

• Ukraine's export vulnerability remains high as about 90% of grain and oilseed exports transit the Black Sea; Danube and land routes cannot fully replace seaports.