SPIKE Context

• Black Sea port blockade and intensified Russian attacks continue to severely restrict Ukrainian grain exports, with shipments from Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi ports nearly halted since July.

• Grain exports in early August have collapsed sharply year-on-year: wheat down 4.3-fold, barley 5.6-fold, and corn 2.7-fold, pushing domestic prices below production costs and causing significant export revenue losses.

• Alternative export routes via the Danube and EU countries are operational but costly, adding about $70 per tonne in logistics expenses, only partially offset by higher global prices.

• Global markets partially compensate for Ukraine’s export shortfall through increased supplies from Russia, USA, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Australia, and the EU, while sunflower oil demand is met by Russian, Argentine, palm, soy, and rapeseed oils.

• Ukrainian corn export price remains stable at $190/t CPT Odesa, reflecting stagnant export volumes amid port blockades.

• Wheat milling price steady at $195/t CPT Odesa; feed wheat at $185/t, both unchanged but pressured by export disruptions and accumulating domestic stocks.

• Wheat exports have fallen drastically in August, with only 175,000 tons shipped in the first 12 days compared to 759,000 tons last year, signaling tight supply chains and export bottlenecks.

• Sunflower seed price at $440/t CPT Crush remains unchanged but new-crop sunflower seed prices are expected to decline in autumn due to active market arrivals and export uncertainties caused by limited port operations.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices hold at $485/t CPT Crush and $500/t CPT Odesa export, with exports totaling $1.85 billion, representing 18.4% of global rapeseed exports, despite logistic challenges.

• Soybean prices stable with GMO soybean at $425/t CPT Crush and non-GMO soybean at $440/t CPT Odesa export, though Ukraine’s crush volume is lowered amid export difficulties.

• Ukraine is intensifying efforts to expand agroexports and optimize EU quota utilization amid ongoing export constraints.

• Local crushers are cautious in purchasing due to export uncertainties and anticipated higher future costs linked to maritime logistics issues.

• Alternative logistics via Moldova and Romania face local farmer opposition due to transit discounts, complicating export route diversification.

• Harvesting of early grains and oilseeds is nearing completion with total grain collected at nearly 34.6 million tons; further yield dynamics depend on the start of late crop harvesting, especially corn, sunflower, and soybeans.

• Ukraine has simplified diesel fuel imports from sanctioned ports, easing energy supply for agricultural logistics and processing.

• Global food prices remain elevated due to combined effects of Ukrainian export disruptions and European drought, with benchmark indices hitting multi-year highs.

• Russian grain exports are also under pressure from Black Sea attacks, expected to reach decade lows in August, further tightening global supply.

• Ukraine’s export shortfall is driving importers to seek alternative suppliers, including India replacing Black Sea wheat in Bangladesh markets.

• Farm Futures reports modest buying interest in wheat futures driven by spillover from corn and soybeans amid Black Sea shipping concerns, with no signs of de-escalation in port attacks.