SPIKE Context

• Russian attacks continue to block Ukrainian Black Sea ports, severely restricting grain exports during critical harvest season.

• Ukraine exports only about 30% of its agricultural potential due to port blockades and limited alternative logistics.

• Rail and Danube river transport face capacity and drought-related constraints, raising export costs and limiting volumes.

• Sunflower crushing remains active but faces export and logistics uncertainties, pressuring seed demand and prices.

• Export prices remain stable today with no change in key commodity indices at Odesa and Chop terminals.

• Ukrainian corn and wheat export prices hold steady at $190/t and $195/t CPT Odesa respectively amid export bottlenecks.

• Grain shipments through Odesa ports have collapsed after recent drone strikes; alternative routes via Danube and EU rail are costly and limited.

• Farmers face mounting unsold grain stocks as export volumes plunge; domestic storage capacity is forecast to be insufficient by November.

• Wheat prices at Danube ports trade $40-45/t lower than at Odesa due to higher logistics costs and limited demand.

• Global buyers are shifting to U.S. and Australian origins as Ukraine’s Black Sea exports remain disrupted.

• Sunflower seed processing prices remain unchanged at $440/t CPT Crush, but crushing margins are squeezed by export uncertainties.

• Russian export duty hikes and port closures have flipped the physical premium in favor of Russian sunflower oil over Ukrainian.

• Soybean and rapeseed markets show more diversified export and crushing patterns, supporting steadier price levels.

• Two draft laws propose temporary zero export duties on soy, rapeseed, and sunflower to stimulate exports amid logistical challenges.

• Extreme heat and drought continue to reduce Danube river transport capacity, complicating inland grain export logistics.

• Harvest of wheat, barley, and rapeseed is ongoing; maize, sunflower seed, and soy harvesting will start soon, adding pressure on storage and logistics.

• Sunflower crushers depend on rapid harvest progress and stable internal logistics to avoid production disruptions.

• Domestic crushing of sunflower seed is near a halt in southern Ukraine due to port and transport blockades, increasing pressure on seed prices.

• Russia and Ukraine together account for about 30-32% of global wheat trade and over 10% of corn trade; disruptions are fueling global price volatility.

• Global wheat futures show elevated volatility as importers seek alternative origins amid Black Sea export disruptions.

• Countries like Indonesia, Bangladesh, and India are substituting Ukrainian sunflower oil with palm and soybean oil due to shipment delays.