SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes remain constrained by ongoing Black Sea port disruptions and logistical bottlenecks, despite a record grain harvest in Odesa region. Export forecasts for wheat and corn have been revised downward by up to 39% due to these challenges.

• Wheat and corn export prices at CPT Odesa hold steady at $180/t and $180/t respectively, reflecting stable market conditions amid export constraints.

• Ukraine’s grain exports increased 55% year-on-year in the first month of the 2026/27 marketing season, driven by higher corn shipments compensating for reduced wheat exports.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Ukraine’s wheat exports at 10.8 million tons and corn exports at 14 million tons for 2026/27, marking significant declines from earlier estimates due to export disruptions.

• Farmers in Odesa report record grain harvests but face difficulties selling due to port blockades and limited export capacity, causing product accumulation and working capital shortages.

• Sunflower seed purchase prices in Ukraine rose by $23/t last week to $483/t, intensifying competition for raw materials domestically amid strong global sunflower oil market dynamics.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices remain stable at $500/t CPT Crush and $550/t CPT Port, while regional supply disruptions have boosted demand and export volumes from Romania’s Constanța port, expanding into new markets such as Turkey.

• Ukrainian farm cooperatives gained access to open exports of soybeans and rapeseed, enabling aggregation of member volumes to improve export efficiency.

• Moldova is considering extending grain import licensing restrictions beyond October 31, potentially affecting Ukrainian grain export flows to the region.

• The Ukrainian government eased foreign exchange control rules for exporters of key agricultural commodities, including wheat, corn, soybeans, and sunflower products, to mitigate logistical challenges caused by Black Sea port shelling.

• Despite good yields, most winter wheat varieties in eastern and central Ukraine showed unsatisfactory grain quality, with some downgraded to feed class, potentially impacting milling wheat supply quality.

• Domestic demand for sunflower seed is rising alongside export-oriented sunflower oil and meal production, driving up raw material prices and competition among crushers.

• Global food security remains sensitive to Black Sea export disruptions, as Ukraine and Russia together supply roughly 30% of global wheat and 20% of corn exports.

• Higher freight costs and port disruptions in the Black Sea region continue to limit Ukraine’s export capacity, pushing grain flows toward Danube river terminals and alternative routes, though volumes remain below pre-war peaks.

• Romania’s record rapeseed crop and export growth partly offset supply shortfalls from Ukraine, with Constanța port strengthening its role as a regional hub amid Black Sea export challenges.