SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes remain constrained by ongoing logistical challenges despite stable local prices for corn and wheat at CPT Odesa levels.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa hold steady at $180/t with no change, reflecting stable market conditions amid export disruptions.

• Wheat milling prices remain unchanged at $180/t CPT Odesa, while feed wheat is priced at $165/t, indicating balanced supply-demand dynamics domestically.

• Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2026/27 marketing year show a 55% increase in volume compared to last year’s start, driven by higher corn shipments, although wheat exports are declining.

• USDA forecasts a significant reduction in Ukraine’s grain exports this season, with corn exports expected at 14 million tons, down 39% from official estimates, due to war-related disruptions.

• High rail transportation costs and logistical bottlenecks, especially in eastern Ukraine, are widening regional price disparities for corn, limiting marketing options for producers.

• Sunflower seed purchase prices in Ukraine have risen by $23/t over the past week to $483/t, intensifying competition for raw materials amid strong global sunflower oil demand.

• Rapeseed prices remain firm with domestic processors raising purchase prices; in August, rapeseed exports accounted for about 75% of combined rapeseed and rapeseed oil shipments.

• The Ukrainian government confirmed no plans to abolish export duties on sunflower seeds, maintaining a 10% domestic duty, while EU import duties remain zero, supporting processing sector stability.

• Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy set a minimum export price for sunflower oil at $1,350/t CPT, approximately $225 above current market levels, potentially affecting export competitiveness.

• Harvest of late crops continues with buckwheat and millet progressing; buckwheat yield averages 1.45 t/ha, reflecting ongoing seasonal fieldwork.

• Processing remains a key pillar of Ukraine’s economic sovereignty, with increased value addition from flour, pasta, and compound feed production supporting jobs and foreign exchange earnings.

• EU corn imports are expected to rise to 25 million tons in 2026/27 due to a smaller EU crop, but Ukraine’s ability to supply is limited by maritime export disruptions.

• Global grain prices remain elevated amid Black Sea export uncertainties, with Ukraine and Russia’s port blockades continuing to impact supply chains and raise freight costs.

• Freight rates from Ukrainian Danube ports are increasing due to vessel shortages and congestion in the Sulina Canal, pushing corn shipment costs to Egypt up by about $5/t to $100–105/t.

• Alternative export routes are partially compensating for Black Sea port disruptions, but sharply higher freight costs and logistical delays constrain full recovery of Ukraine’s grain exports.