SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain prices showed mixed trends this week: feed wheat firmed, while milling wheat, corn, and sunflower seed prices declined amid ongoing logistical challenges and export constraints.

• Sunflower seed prices dropped by $33/t at domestic processing points, pressured by export difficulties and reduced processor demand, while rapeseed and soybean prices edged higher by $5-45/t depending on delivery basis.

• Ukraine’s export volumes remain constrained, with agricultural shipments via alternative routes (rail and Danube) reaching about 40% of normal Black Sea port volumes in September.

• Corn and milling wheat export prices held steady at $180/t CPT Odesa, with no change reported, reflecting balanced market sentiment amid de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• Feed wheat prices firmed slightly, supported by domestic demand and export inspections showing increased soybean shipments week-on-week.

• Wheat export remains loss-making due to high logistics costs via Danube and inland routes, with freight adding over $100/t, despite export prices rising to around $275/t.

• Ukraine’s grain storages are swelling as port infrastructure damage limits export capacity to approximately 38% of intended volumes.

• Sunflower seed prices declined sharply by $33/t, trading at EUR425-430/t at the western border for Q4 delivery, pressured by export bottlenecks and weaker processor demand.

• Rapeseed prices increased over the week by $15-45/t across FCA Chop, CPT port, and processing bases, supported by tighter supply and some crude oil price support despite higher logistics costs.

• Soybean prices rose modestly by $5-10/t, reflecting steady export interest and improved forward selling activity.

• USDA forecasts a 15% increase in global sunflower oil and seed exports in oil equivalent terms, driven by higher harvests and exports from Ukraine and Russia, although volumes remain below 2024/25 levels.

• The European Commission confirmed no increase in import quotas for Ukrainian wheat beyond the existing 2.3 million tonnes quota for third countries, limiting export expansion opportunities within the EU.

• Russia eliminated grain export duties on wheat, corn, and barley through 2026 to support exporters amid Black Sea port disruptions, intensifying regional trade competition.

• Ukraine’s sunflower market enters 2026/27 with a larger crop but faces risks in processing capacity and export logistics, which may constrain oil and meal shipments despite increased raw material availability.

• Higher logistics costs and weaker demand from processors continue to pressure rapeseed prices domestically, compounded by falling sunflower seed and soybean prices.

• Global grain futures declined overnight amid easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with export inspections showing increased soybean shipments, while extremely hot weather forecasts in key US growing regions add uncertainty.

• Black Sea disruptions continue to reshape global grain trade flows, with buyers shifting to alternative origins such as French wheat for North African markets and Russia rerouting grain exports through Baltic, Caspian, and Pacific ports.