SPIKE Context

• Export logistics remain the main constraint for Ukrainian grain and oilseed shipments amid ongoing Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and infrastructure, including recent missile strikes on Odesa region.

• Minimum export prices set above current market levels are causing customs clearance delays for wheat, pressuring purchase prices at Danube ports.

• Ukraine's sunflower seed prices have dropped sharply by $33 per tonne recently, while rapeseed and soybean prices have gained modestly, reflecting mixed demand and logistics challenges.

• Ukrainian corn prices hold steady at $180/t CPT Odesa but face declining export demand, contributing to downward price pressure in domestic markets.

• Feed wheat prices firm at $165/t CPT Odesa, while milling wheat remains stable at $180/t CPT Odesa despite export difficulties and higher logistics costs through Danube routes.

• Wheat exports are currently loss-making due to high logistics costs exceeding $100/t for Danube port shipments, despite export prices rising to around $275/t.

• Sunflower seed prices have plunged by $33/t, trading at EUR425-430/t at the western border for Q4 delivery, amid concerns over export bottlenecks and processing capacity.

• Rapeseed prices increased by $30-45/t across FCA Chop and CPT port bases, supported by stronger demand and limited supply.

• Soybean prices edged up by $5-10/t, reflecting steady processor interest and export flows despite logistical constraints.

• Ukraine's sunflower oil exports are forecast to rise by about 15% in oil equivalent terms in 2026/27, driven by a larger harvest and export recovery, though still below pre-crisis levels.

• EU feed sector faces significant supply risks due to drought and Black Sea trade disruptions, increasing demand for Ukrainian rapeseed and sunflower meal as alternatives to soybean meal.

• Additional costs linked to EU regulatory compliance (EUDR) and logistics are estimated to impact soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower meal supplies by around €1.4 billion.

• Russian missile and drone attacks continue to disrupt Odesa port operations, severely limiting Ukraine's ability to export grain and oilseeds via Black Sea routes.

• Alternative export corridors via Danube and rail have increased volumes but still cover only about 40% of normal export capacity in September.

• Damage to key infrastructure, including a bridge in Odesa, restricts grain transport to Danube ports, exacerbating export bottlenecks.

• Wheat export logistics via Romanian port Constanta are currently active but expected to face increased competition from corn exports starting October, complicating shipment scheduling.

• Russian grain exports have sharply declined in September due to Black Sea military operations, with shipments rerouted to Baltic ports but at higher costs and limited volumes.

• Global food security concerns persist as Ukraine and Russia together account for substantial shares of global wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil exports, with ongoing port blockades constraining supply.

• USDA notes that the current crisis differs from 2022 by simultaneous supply constraints on both Black Sea shores, causing a genuine contraction in global supply rather than mere market share redistribution.