SPIKE Context

• Stable export prices for Ukrainian corn and milling wheat at $180/t CPT Odesa reflect steady demand despite logistical challenges.

• Sunflower seed processing prices hold firm at $450/t CPT Crush, while rapeseed and soybean prices show upward pressure amid tightening supply chains.

• Persistent disruptions to Black Sea ports and damaged infrastructure on Danube routes continue to constrain export volumes and logistics capacity.

• Ukrainian corn prices remain unchanged at $180/t CPT Odesa and $221/t FCA Chop, indicating stable market conditions despite export route constraints.

• Wheat export prices steady at $180/t for milling wheat and $165/t for feed wheat CPT Odesa, with active shipments through Romanian port Constanța offsetting Black Sea port limitations.

• September export volumes for wheat are expected to approach 1 million tonnes, with wheat increasingly competing with corn for limited export logistics capacity.

• Sunflower seed prices stable at $450/t CPT Crush; however, rail shipments to European markets trade at EUR425-430/t at western borders for Q4 delivery.

• Rapeseed prices increased over the week by $15-45/t across processing and export bases, reaching $600/t FCA Chop and $550/t CPT Odesa, supported by strong EU demand amid soybean meal shortages.

• Soybean prices rose modestly by $5-10/t, with GMO soybean export prices at $415/t CPT Odesa and non-GMO at $440/t CPT Odesa, reflecting firming fundamentals.

• Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports reached 131,000 tonnes in the first half of September, about 62% of potential capacity, highlighting ongoing logistical constraints.

• USDA projects a 15% growth in sunflower oil trade in 2026/27, driven by larger crops in Ukraine and Russia after prior seasons of below-average yields.

• The EU faces a soybean meal deficit due to drought and Black Sea trade disruptions, increasing demand for Ukrainian rapeseed and sunflower meal as alternative protein sources.

• Ukraine and Serbia are considered low- to medium-risk origins for EU feed supplies, but logistics remain the main bottleneck for Ukrainian exports.

• FEFAC estimates the economic impact of supply constraints on EU feed sectors at around €1.4 billion, underscoring the strategic importance of Ukrainian oilseed meals.

• USDA reports Ukraine’s 2026 grain production at 30.9 million tonnes with exports forecast at 22.4 million tonnes, indicating a solid harvest despite ongoing conflict and logistic hurdles.

• Global soybean production is at a record 440 million tonnes, but Black Sea export disruptions continue to support elevated price levels for Ukrainian oilseeds and grains.

• Sunflower seed processing volumes remain robust, supporting Ukraine’s position as a key global supplier of sunflower oil and meal, critical for European food and feed markets.

• Processing margins benefit from firm export prices and constrained logistics, encouraging continued crushing activity despite export route challenges.

• Black Sea export disruptions have pushed global grain and oilseed prices higher, with wheat and soybean prices up approximately 23% year-on-year.

• Russian grain exports have shifted to Baltic ports due to southern route closures, but volumes remain limited compared to pre-conflict levels, indirectly affecting Ukraine’s export dynamics.

• EU feed supply chains face significant risks from drought and maritime corridor closures, increasing reliance on Ukrainian oilseed meals and rapeseed imports.