SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes are increasingly shifting from Black Sea ports to land and alternative routes due to ongoing port disruptions and infrastructure damage, with rail and Danube river shipments gaining prominence.

• Sunflower oil exports remain a critical segment, with Ukraine supplying 131,000 tons in the first half of September despite logistical challenges, reflecting a 15% expected growth in sunflower oil trade linked to larger crops this season.

• Corn exports from Ukraine have nearly doubled recently, reaching 4.6 million tons, supported by active shipments through alternative routes as Black Sea port throughput remains constrained.

• Wheat export logistics are increasingly reliant on the Romanian port of Constanța, where volumes may approach 1 million tons in September; however, competition with rising corn exports may complicate logistics from October onward.

• Feed wheat and milling wheat prices remain stable at $165 and $180 per ton CPT Odesa respectively, reflecting steady export demand amid logistical constraints.

• Sunflower seed supply entering the 2026/27 season is improving after a deficit last year, with harvest forecasts up by approximately 25%, supporting processing and export potential.

• Sunflower seed prices have softened by around $33 per ton at the western border, while rapeseed and soybean prices have gained $5-45 per ton depending on delivery basis, indicating firm demand for oilseeds.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices hold at $550-$600 per ton CPT Odesa/FCA Chop, while GMO and non-GMO soybean export prices remain stable around $415-$480 per ton CPT Odesa and FCA Chop.

• USDA projects a 15% increase in sunflower oil and equivalent trade globally in 2026/27, driven by larger crops in Ukraine and Russia after two poor seasons, with India and China as key import growth markets.

• EU feed supply chains face risks from drought and Black Sea corridor closures, increasing demand for Ukrainian rapeseed and sunflower meal as alternatives to soybean meal, despite logistical constraints.

• FEFAC estimates the economic impact of soybean meal supply deficits on EU feed sectors at approximately €1.4 billion, highlighting Ukraine’s strategic role as a low- to medium-risk origin for oilseed meals.

• Black Sea port operations remain under pressure from ongoing Russian attacks and infrastructure damage, including recent missile strikes on Odesa and damage to a key grain export bridge, limiting throughput capacity.

• Over 80% of Ukraine’s rail grain exports now transit via land border crossings, with only 11,200 tons shipped through Great Odesa ports in the first half of September, down 77.6% month-on-month.

• Ukraine and Romania have agreed to jointly develop border infrastructure to enhance transit capacity for Ukrainian cargo, aiming to alleviate export bottlenecks through alternative routes.

• The 2026/27 sunflower crop in Ukraine is expected to increase by about 25% compared to the previous season, improving raw material availability for processing and export.

• Ukrainian grain exporters face challenges in external contract execution due to real prices in deals falling below established minimum export thresholds, complicating trade formalities.

• Global grain and oilseed prices have risen sharply, with wheat and soybean prices up around 23% year-on-year, influenced by Black Sea export disruptions and poor European crop conditions.

• Russia’s grain exports have shifted from southern Black Sea ports to Baltic Sea ports, with shipments accumulating at Ust-Luga and Vysotsk, reflecting broader regional trade realignments impacting Ukraine’s competitive position.