SPIKE Context

• Black Sea blockade continues to severely disrupt Ukrainian grain exports, with combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat shipments for July-September estimated at half last year's volume, pressuring global wheat supply and prices.

• Ukraine's grain exports are increasingly routed through alternative corridors, including Romanian ports like Constanța, as Black Sea maritime routes remain constrained.

• Ukrainian corn exports have nearly doubled to 1.8 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season so far, reflecting strong external demand despite logistical challenges.

• Wheat exports are down significantly to 2.3 million tonnes versus 4.1 million tonnes last year for the same period, impacted by Black Sea port disruptions and shifting trade flows.

• Feed wheat prices at CPT Odesa remain stable at $165/t, while milling wheat holds at $180/t, reflecting steady domestic price levels amid export uncertainties.

• Global buyers from Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa are sourcing wheat from alternative origins such as Bulgaria, Romania, France, the Baltic states, and the United States due to Black Sea supply constraints.

• The blockade has forced importers to accept higher prices and more expensive logistics, intensifying inflation risks for wheat and related food products worldwide.

• Sunflower seed processing in Ukraine remains steady with prices at $450/t CPT Crush, supported by robust domestic crushing despite export route limitations.

• Rapeseed processing has increased substantially, with non-GMO rapeseed prices stable at $500/t CPT Crush; domestic processing rose 2.7-fold in 2025/26, reaching a record 42% of the crop.

• Soybean export prices hold firm at $415/t CPT Odesa for GMO and $440/t for non-GMO varieties, with recent slight increases in export demand noted amid seasonal market pressure.

• Ukraine's rapeseed oil exports surged 2.5-fold in 2025/26, with export revenues tripling to $588 million, reflecting a strategic shift towards domestic processing to mitigate export bottlenecks.

• Soybean processing volumes also increased, supporting stable domestic demand and partially offsetting export market disruptions.

• The Black Sea region remains a critical global food supply hub, accounting for over a quarter of global wheat trade, two-thirds of sunflower oil exports, and about 10% of corn shipments.

• The ongoing conflict and port attacks have elevated wheat prices to three-year highs globally, forcing buyers to scramble for alternative supplies and raising food inflation risks.

• Russia has shifted some wheat shipments to Baltic and Arctic ports, adapting infrastructure to maintain export flows amid Black Sea constraints.

• Ukraine and Romania plan to expand transshipment capacities and border throughput to facilitate Ukrainian cargo exports via Romanian ports, though operational challenges persist.