SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian wheat export prices declined by $10/t to $170/t CPT Odesa amid logistical shifts and competition from corn exports.

• Corn export prices fell $5/t to $175/t CPT Odesa, pressured by growing export volumes and freight cost challenges.

• Soybean export prices rose by $10/t at CPT Odesa ports, reflecting tighter supplies and export tax impacts.

• Sunflower seed processing prices dropped $20/t CPT Crush, as processors favor sunflower over rapeseed due to better margins.

• Rapeseed export prices declined sharply by $30-$40/t at CPT Odesa and FCA Chop, linked to reduced domestic processing demand and supply disruptions.

• Wheat exports continue to shift from Odesa to alternative routes, notably via Romanian port Constanța, which remains a key outlet despite rising freight costs and logistical challenges.

• Rail shipments to Danube river ports nearly tripled in August, compensating for a 95% collapse in Odesa deliveries.

• September grain exports reached 44% of potential, up from 30% in August, supported by alternative land and river routes but constrained by high transport costs.

• Corn exports increased in September, with volumes rising amid competition for logistics capacity, pressuring corn prices downward.

• Ukraine’s soybean market shows a shift towards increased domestic crushing due to a smaller crop and a 10% export duty, which nearly halved raw soybean exports in 2025/26 marketing year.

• Processed soybean products, especially soybean meal, have seen export growth, supporting crushing margins.

• Rapeseed exports declined in early September despite overall export growth in oilseeds; domestic processing demand for rapeseed weakened as processors prefer sunflower seeds for higher margins.

• Sunflower oil exports reached 68,000 tonnes in the first half of September, maintaining stable prices despite export route challenges.

• The 10% export duty on soy and rapeseed generated UAH 2.17 billion in revenue, supporting domestic oil processing industries and increasing tax income.

• The Ukrainian Grain Association urged the government to abolish the 10% export duty on soy and rapeseed, citing systemic issues with the exemption mechanism for self-grown products.

• Exporters and producers face ongoing challenges from high freight costs and logistical bottlenecks, impacting competitiveness and export profitability.

• As of mid-September, Ukraine reported harvesting over 24.9 million tonnes of wheat, 6.4 million tonnes of barley, and an expected 32.1 million tonnes of corn for the 2026/27 season.

• If logistics remain stable, Ukraine’s export potential could reach 52 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 41.1 million tonnes last season.

• Black Sea port disruptions due to ongoing conflict continue to severely restrict maritime grain exports, with Odesa ports handling about 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports under regular missile and drone attacks.

• Combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for July-September are expected to be roughly half of last year’s volume, pushing global wheat prices to three-year highs and straining storage capacity in Ukraine.

• Major wheat importers in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa face procurement difficulties, turning to alternative suppliers in Europe, the US, and the Baltic states.

• Alternative export routes via EU Solidarity Lanes and Danube river ports mitigate some export losses but come with higher costs and capacity limits.

• Continued tit-for-tat attacks on Black Sea shipping have brought Ukraine’s maritime grain exports to a virtual halt, forcing buyers to seek more expensive and less convenient sources.