SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain exports have surpassed 5 million tonnes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, with wheat exports at 2.6 million tonnes, down from 4.7 million tonnes last year.

• Black Sea port blockades continue to critically constrain Ukraine’s export capacity, limiting shipments to roughly 40% of potential volumes according to government sources.

• Logistics costs for Ukrainian grain exports have surged, with alternative routes via Danube and Baltic ports adding $50-$100 per tonne, impacting competitiveness and creating bottlenecks.

• Sunflower seed exports are active, with Turkey emerging as a key destination amid its search for alternative suppliers due to ongoing regional supply disruptions.

• Ukrainian corn and wheat export prices remain stable at $175/t and $170/t CPT Odesa respectively, reflecting steady market conditions despite logistical challenges.

• Feed wheat prices hold at $160/t CPT Odesa, supported by sustained domestic demand and export interest.

• Ukraine’s total grain and legume harvest exceeds 34.3 million tonnes, including 3.87 million tonnes of rapeseed and 3.36 million tonnes of sunflower seed, confirming a solid production base.

• Wheat exports have declined sharply year-on-year due to port blockades, with August shipments at 1.13 million tonnes versus 2.6 million tonnes previously.

• Exporters are increasingly routing grain through Danube river ports and exploring Baltic alternatives, though higher transport costs weigh on export margins.

• Sunflower seed processing prices remain steady at $430/t CPT Crush Ukraine, with export prices stable at $425-$430/t CPT Odesa.

• Turkey’s sunflower seed import demand is rising as it seeks to replace traditional Black Sea suppliers, with 2026-27 imports forecast at 1.8 million tonnes.

• Rapeseed non-GMO prices hold firm at $500/t CPT Crush and $520-$560/t export basis, supported by steady processing activity and export flows.

• Ukrainian sunflower oil exports continue via all available logistical routes despite port restrictions, maintaining supply to key markets.

• Harvest completion reported for rapeseed and sunflower with yields of 29.1 and 20.3 centners per hectare respectively, indicating favorable growing conditions despite regional challenges.

• Soybean production totals 1.22 million tonnes from 571,400 hectares, supporting oilseed sector stability.

• Kernel, Ukraine’s leading sunflower oil producer and grain exporter, is deploying new modular grain storage facilities to increase capacity and support both own and third-party grain handling.

• Domestic logistics constraints, including limited storage capacity and transport bottlenecks, continue to pressure supply chains and may impact price dynamics in coming months.

• Global markets remain attentive to Ukraine’s export outlook amid renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the war and unblock Black Sea corridors.

• The blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports is causing global supply chain disruptions, with potential price spikes of 10-15% in wheat, corn, and sunflower oil if blockades persist.

• Turkey’s pivot to alternate sunflower seed suppliers highlights shifting trade flows in the Black Sea region due to ongoing conflict and export uncertainties.