SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain exports remain severely constrained by ongoing Black Sea port disruptions, with September grain shipments down over 45% year-on-year except for corn, which shows export growth.

• Oilseed export volumes are declining more moderately, pressured by rising supply and weaker global futures, while domestic processing prices hold steady.

• Logistics costs for grain exports have surged by up to $100/t due to reliance on alternative Danube and rail routes, squeezing farmer margins and threatening export competitiveness.

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa remain stable at $175/t, reflecting steady demand despite logistical challenges; corn exports to the EU have doubled in the 2026/27 marketing year but face stiff competition from the US.

• Wheat prices hold at $170/t CPT Odesa with feed wheat at $160/t, but export volumes lag behind last year due to port disruptions and rising carryover stocks, which could reach record levels next season.

• Ukraine has exported over 5 million tonnes of grains and pulses since the start of the 2026/27 season, but overall grain export volumes fell sharply in September amid ongoing Black Sea corridor instability.

• Sunflower seed prices remain stable at $430/t CPT Crush; the first shipment of Ukrainian sunflower seeds has departed for Turkey, where importers are securing supplies for late 2026 deliveries.

• Rapeseed prices have declined by UAH 500–1,000/t to UAH 19,000–20,000/t delivered to plants, pressured by rising supply and weaker canola futures, though export shipments remain active with 341,000 tonnes shipped in September so far.

• Ukraine's soybean exports could expand to Turkey and Mediterranean markets amid global supply uncertainties, especially if Brazil faces weather or logistics issues.

• Ukraine’s farm union warns that prioritizing oilseed exports over grains amid limited port capacity risks exacerbating grain stock build-up and market imbalance; wheat carryover stocks may surge to a record 11.7 million tonnes by 2027/28.

• Turkey seeks alternative sunflower seed suppliers due to ongoing Russia-Ukraine war disruptions, increasing demand for Ukrainian seeds despite logistical hurdles.

• Winter crop sowing progress: 31% of planned wheat area and 92% of rapeseed area have been sown by September 29, indicating a solid start to the new season’s planting campaign.

• Ukraine’s 2026 harvest completed for rapeseed (3.87 million tonnes) and sunflower (3.36 million tonnes), with soybean production at 1.22 million tonnes, supporting oilseed export potential despite logistical constraints.

• Sunflower oil processing remains a key domestic sector, with near parity in prices between high-oleic and conventional sunflower seeds this season, reducing previous premiums and influencing planting decisions.

• Black Sea port attacks continue to disrupt exports, forcing grain shipments through Danube and rail routes, which add approximately $50–100/t in logistics costs and create bottlenecks, undermining Ukraine’s export competitiveness.

• Rail freight rates for grain transport to Romania have surged nearly fourfold in auctions, and wagon rental prices are set to increase further in October, adding to export cost pressures.

• Global markets remain tense over Black Sea grain export prospects, with diplomatic efforts ongoing but no resolution yet; disruptions have already caused significant supply shocks affecting major importers reliant on Ukrainian grain and oilseed supplies.

• Ukraine and Russia together account for a substantial share of global wheat, corn, and sunflower oil exports, making the stability of Black Sea corridors critical for global food security.