SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain prices continue to decline amid falling export volumes and weak multinational demand, despite rising global grain prices.

• Corn prices in Ukrainian ports and western regions show slight upward pressure, contrasting with declines in wheat and sunflower seed values.

• Wheat prices in Ukraine remain stable at $170/t CPT Odesa for milling wheat and $160/t for feed wheat, with no change from previous levels but domestic prices declining by $5-6/t due to reduced export demand.

• Feed wheat prices fell most sharply, pressured by a nearly 70% drop in wheat, corn, and barley exports in August compared to July, with corn exports down 84.3%.

• Corn export prices hold steady at $175/t CPT Odesa, while internal prices rise slightly in ports and western Ukraine, reflecting tighter supply and stronger demand for feed use.

• Harvest progress accelerates with sunflower seed harvested from 32% of area yielding 20.3 c/ha and soybeans from 36% of area yielding 21.3 c/ha, supporting supply growth.

• Sunflower seed prices decline amid rapid supply growth and limited processing capacity due to some crushers remaining offline after damage.

• Rapeseed export prices stable at $520/t CPT Odesa, but domestic prices have softened by UAH 100–300/t due to weakening Euronext futures and logistical challenges.

• Soybean export prices steady at $425-$450/t CPT Odesa with no recent changes reported.

• Sunflower oil exports expected to remain at about half the usual volume in MY 2026/27 due to port and storage infrastructure damage and Black Sea shipment disruptions, limiting export potential.

• Ukraine’s Free Trade Agreement with Turkey has entered into force, potentially improving export opportunities though preferences will phase in over time.

• Export volumes remain subdued with total grain exports down 23.4% year-on-year to 5.016 million tons by late September, reflecting ongoing logistical and geopolitical constraints.

• Average wheat yields in some regions exceed last year by 50%, with reported yields of 4.6 t/ha in Novaagro group fields, indicating a strong harvest season despite challenges.

• Domestic demand for corn remains strong, with about 95% of Ukrainian corn consumed internally for fodder, limiting export availability.

• Processing capacity constraints for sunflower seed due to damaged plants may create supply bottlenecks despite larger harvests.

• Global grain prices have reached two-year highs driven by Black Sea export disruptions and geopolitical tensions, contrasting with declining Ukrainian grain prices due to export bottlenecks.

• Black Sea port blockades and attacks continue to disrupt Ukraine’s grain exports, shifting trade flows to rail and Danube routes, which handle about 90% of agricultural cargo now.

• Russia’s grain rerouting efforts face challenges, exacerbating global food market volatility and affecting Ukraine’s export competitiveness.