SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export capacity remains severely constrained by ongoing Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, with about one-third of sea export capacity lost, mainly affecting deepwater ports in Odesa Oblast.

• Grain shipments are increasingly routed via Danube River ports (Reni, Izmail) and western land border crossings, but these alternatives have limited capacity and are overloaded.

• Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine are forecast to fall by approximately 50% this season due to port disruptions and declining export prices, pressuring domestic crushing margins and slowing processing activity.

• Recent drone attacks in the Black Sea sunk a Turkish vessel carrying Ukrainian corn, underscoring persistent security risks for maritime grain shipments.

• EU demand supports Ukraine’s rapeseed exports despite near-term price pressure and falling futures on Euronext; rail shipments are expected to account for 60–70% of rapeseed exports in the current quarter.

• Ukraine is exploring alternative export routes through ports in the Netherlands and Germany to alleviate Black Sea bottlenecks.

• Ukrainian corn export prices remain stable at $170/t CPT Odesa, with FOB Danube prices assessed higher at around $232/t, reflecting premium for alternative routing.

• Wheat export volumes have declined significantly this marketing year, with exports down to 2.6 million tons from 4.7 million tons last year, while corn exports nearly doubled to 1.94 million tons, reflecting shifting crop and export dynamics.

• Overall grain export volumes are constrained by port capacity losses and logistical challenges, despite a forecasted 43 million ton harvest for 2026/27, up from 37 million tons last year.

• Sunflower seed processing potential is up 29% this season to an estimated 13–13.3 million tons, but export and logistical constraints limit actual throughput and export volumes.

• Sunflower seed prices remain steady at $420/t CPT Crush, while sunflower oil exports are expected to halve to about 300,000 tons per month from October to March.

• Rapeseed prices show downward pressure domestically due to falling Euronext futures and logistical bottlenecks; prices at processing plants have declined by UAH 100–200/t, with further reductions for Danube port deliveries.

• Global vegetable oil exports are forecast to reach a record 141 million tons in 2026/27, with Ukraine contributing increased sunflower seed production but facing export challenges.

• Ukraine’s farm union warns that prioritizing oilseed exports over grains at limited Danube and rail export routes could negatively impact grain farmers, highlighting internal export allocation tensions.

• Ukraine is actively seeking to expand export quotas for bioethanol to the EU, aiming to diversify export products amid logistical constraints.

• Diplomatic efforts led by Turkey and the UN aim to restore a Black Sea grain export truce to safeguard shipments, but recent attacks and insurance cost inflation keep disruption risks elevated.

• India has increased engagement with Ukraine and Russia to promote safe navigation and grain export security in the Black Sea, reflecting global concern over supply chain stability.