SPIKE Context

• Ukraine's grain exports remain constrained by ongoing Russian attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure, limiting shipment volumes despite a strong harvest.

• Export volumes of wheat surged in September, rising 78.6% month-on-month to 1.09 million tonnes, driving a 41.5% increase in overall agricultural exports compared to August.

• Corn exports doubled recently to 1.95 million tonnes but still represent only 38% of potential capacity due to logistical bottlenecks and port blockades.

• Corn prices at CPT Odesa hold steady at $170/t, reflecting stable export basis amid constrained volumes.

• Wheat milling prices remain unchanged at $175/t CPT Odesa, with feed wheat at $160/t, showing no immediate price pressure despite export challenges.

• September export data shows a shift favoring corn over wheat, with total grain exports at 1.3 million tonnes for the month, but overall export volumes remain below pre-war levels.

• Rapeseed prices at CPT Crush stand firm at $470/t, but crushers are increasingly favoring sunflower seed, offered at UAH 17.5–19 thousand/t delivered, due to better margins.

• Export bids for rapeseed remain around $500–550/t at Danube and western border terminals, with downward pressure from cheaper sunflower seed and weaker futures.

• Black Sea port attacks continue to disrupt Ukraine's main export routes, forcing a shift to alternative corridors such as the Danube River and rail.

• Danube export capacity is limited by a shortage of qualified crews and incomplete qualification systems, restricting potential volume increases.

• Rail and road routes face capacity constraints and gauge incompatibility issues with European networks, limiting overland export growth.

• Small coaster vessels on the Lower Danube carry loads up to 7,000 dwt, but overall throughput remains insufficient to offset Black Sea port losses.

• Global wheat prices have risen to a two-year high, driven by Black Sea shipping restrictions, while Ukrainian grain prices show mixed trends with corn firming and wheat softening.

• USDA forecasts a 39% drop in Ukraine's corn exports and 26% decline in wheat shipments for the 2026-27 season, attributing reductions to port blockades and infrastructure damage.

• Poland and Romania have declined to increase transit capacity for Ukrainian grain, citing local farmer interests and logistical challenges, further limiting export alternatives.