SPIKE Context

• Corn export prices at CPT Odesa declined by $5/t to $165/t amid ongoing Black Sea export disruptions.

• Soybean export prices at CPT Odesa rose by $15-$20/t, reflecting stronger demand for oilseeds despite logistical constraints.

• Rail grain deliveries to Ukrainian ports fell sharply by 38.6% in September, with the steepest decline (46.5%) to Greater Odesa ports, limiting export volumes.

• Ukraine’s wheat export volumes remain depressed, down 42% year-on-year in July-September 2026/27, constrained by blocked deep-water ports since mid-July.

• Corn prices softened by $5/t at Odesa port, pressured by reduced export throughput and rail delivery declines.

• Wheat export prices remained stable at $175/t milling wheat and $160/t feed wheat CPT Odesa, despite global wheat price gains due to Black Sea disruptions.

• Wheat export volumes increased in September to 1.09 million tonnes, up 78.6% from August, but remain below potential due to port access issues.

• Sunflower seed processing prices dropped by $20/t to $400/t CPT Crush, reflecting weaker domestic demand and export bottlenecks.

• Rapeseed processing prices declined by $20/t to $450/t CPT Crush, while rapeseed export prices held steady at $500/t CPT Odesa but eased by $10/t FCA Chop.

• Soybean processing prices fell by $20/t to $370/t CPT Crush, yet export prices rose by $15-$20/t at CPT Odesa and FCA Chop, indicating export demand outpacing domestic processing.

• Ukraine exported only 46% of its potential agricultural products volume in September, with grain exports at 38% of potential, highlighting severe export constraints.

• Priority for higher-value oilseed exports over grains at ports may further limit wheat and corn export opportunities.

• Southern Ukraine delivered better-than-expected wheat yields, especially in Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, contributing to a national production upgrade despite export bottlenecks.

• Black Sea tensions escalate with drone attacks on commercial vessels, prompting EU support for Bulgaria and Romania and raising concerns over maritime export security.

• Russia sharply reduced its wheat exports via the Black Sea, failing to compensate lost volumes through alternative routes, intensifying regional export challenges.

• Global wheat prices are rising amid Black Sea export disruptions, supporting Ukraine’s wheat price stability despite domestic logistical issues.