SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export forecast is sharply reduced due to ongoing Russian attacks on Black Sea ports, with wheat exports nearly halved and total agricultural exports down 54% compared to pre-conflict levels.

• Rail and Danube river routes partially compensate for blocked sea exports but face capacity and weather constraints, limiting overall throughput to about one-third of previous volumes.

• Sunflower seed prices continue to decline amid rising supply and export bottlenecks caused by limited port operations and slower shipments of sunflower oil and meal.

• Rapeseed exports from Ukraine are increasing, pressuring European markets and weakening price support amid higher availability for EU crushers.

• Oilseed processing plants in Ukraine have largely ceased rapeseed crushing, shifting focus to sunflower seed due to market and logistical factors.

• Ukraine’s milling wheat export price remains stable at $175/t CPT Odesa, reflecting steady demand despite logistical challenges.

• Feed wheat prices hold at $160/t CPT Odesa, supported by domestic feed demand and export flows via alternative routes.

• Corn export prices steady at $165/t CPT Odesa, with export volumes near 12 million tonnes year-to-date amid sustained global demand.

• Ukraine’s grain export forecast for 2026/27 is cut to about 29.6 million tonnes, down 54% from 64.4 million tonnes, mainly due to Black Sea port disruptions.

• Sunflower seed prices at processing plants are quoted between 17,500 and 19,000 UAH/t delivered, pressured by growing supply and export delays.

• Rapeseed export prices remain stable around $500-520/t CPT Odesa, but domestic crushing has nearly stopped as plants switch to sunflower seed processing.

• Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed harvest is forecast at 3.5 million tonnes, up from 3.2 million tonnes in 2025, with 1.9 million tonnes expected for export and the rest for domestic processing.

• Soybean export prices hold firm near $445-460/t CPT Odesa and FCA Chop, reflecting balanced supply and demand.

• Ukraine rejects proposed EU agricultural export limits, defending its role as a major producer and exporter of corn, wheat, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and vegetable oils.

• Export routes via Danube ports and rail are critical, currently handling about 41% and 54% respectively of Ukraine’s grain exports amid Black Sea port closures.

• Ukraine seeks to renegotiate EU agricultural export quotas to improve market access amid constrained logistics.

• Russian suspension of grain export agreements and drone attacks on Black Sea shipping continue to escalate risks for Ukraine’s maritime exports, raising insurance and freight costs.

• Global wheat logistics are disrupted by parallel Russian Black Sea export bottlenecks, shifting demand toward Ukraine and alternative origins.

• India’s cooking oil imports rise for festival season, but Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports remain limited due to war-related export constraints.

• Ukraine’s export challenges contribute to tightening global grain and oilseed markets, with increased competition among food, industrial, and biodiesel users for vegetable oils.