SPIKE Context

• Ukraine's grain exports remain severely constrained by ongoing Black Sea maritime conflict and port infrastructure damage, limiting September shipments to 46% of potential volume.

• Danube river ports have become the primary export route, handling 54% of shipments, but face capacity and blockage challenges, including recent temporary traffic halt near Constanta.

• Rail grain deliveries to Ukrainian ports fell sharply in September, down 38.6%, with routes to Greater Odesa ports declining 46.5%, reflecting logistical bottlenecks and security risks.

• Ukrainian corn export prices remain stable at 165 USD/t CPT Odesa and 205 USD/t FCA Chop, reflecting steady demand amid export route constraints.

• Wheat milling prices hold at 175 USD/t CPT Odesa, with feed wheat steady at 160 USD/t, supported by limited export volumes and firm domestic demand.

• Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat crop estimates range between 22.3 and 23.5 million tonnes, similar to last year, but export volumes are cut sharply due to port disruptions.

• Ukraine’s corn production forecast for 2026 is between 32 and 34 million tonnes, slightly down from earlier projections, with export forecasts rising despite harvest delays.

• Sunflower seed processing prices remain unchanged at 400 USD/t CPT Crush, while rapeseed non-GMO prices hold at 450 USD/t processing and 500 USD/t export CPT Odesa.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed exports to the EU declined 44% year-on-year in early 2026/27, with the country’s share of EU imports dropping to 38.56% but still remaining the largest supplier.

• Black Sea crude sunflower oil prices show a slight firming bias due to logistics risks and strong demand from India and Europe, despite ongoing harvest pressure on seeds and kernels.

• Ukraine has fully utilized or allocated its tariff quotas for agricultural exports to the EU as of October 1, including 100% of wheat quotas, indicating strong export demand within quota limits.

• Turkey has emerged as a significant market for Ukrainian wheat, with exports rising 46% in September to 287,000 tonnes, driven by increased wheat shipments.

• Soybean processing prices remain steady at 370 USD/t CPT Crush, with GMO soybean export prices stable at 440-445 USD/t CPT Odesa and FCA Chop.

• Despite export challenges, domestic crushing capacity for soybeans remains supported by steady processing margins and stable prices.

• Russian strikes on Black Sea ports continue to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports, with attacks on civilian vessels and infrastructure adding to export route risks and costs.

• Global wheat supplies are tightening due to reduced Russian exports via Baltic ports and ongoing Black Sea disruptions, supporting firm wheat prices internationally.