SPIKE Context

• Ukraine’s grain export corridor remains critically constrained by ongoing Russian attacks on Odesa region seaports and Danube Delta facilities, sharply limiting maritime shipments despite large crop availability.

• Sunflower seed and oil markets face downward price pressure from record new-crop supplies, while logistics bottlenecks and elevated war-risk premiums sustain a risk premium on export flows.

• Rail grain shipments to Odesa ports halved in October compared to September, reflecting severe logistical challenges and port capacity reductions.

• Kernel Holding reported a near 50% drop in grain and vegetable oil exports in Q3 2026 due to port disruptions and logistics constraints.

• Ukraine is negotiating with Poland and Slovakia to relocate customs controls deeper into EU territory to protect export flows from Russian drone and missile attacks on border checkpoints.

• Ukraine’s wheat exports have reached over 3.5 million tons so far in the 2026/27 marketing year, but total grain and legume exports are down 25% year-on-year due to logistical bottlenecks and port disruptions.

• Corn export prices remain stable at 160 USD/t CPT Odesa, reflecting steady demand amid constrained export capacity.

• Feed wheat prices hold at 155 USD/t CPT Odesa, supported by ongoing domestic feed demand and limited export throughput.

• Rail shipments of grain to Odesa ports fell to 9.8 thousand tons in October from 20.8 thousand tons in September, indicating a halving of rail export capacity.

• Ukraine’s railway system can deliver up to 1.1 million tons of grain monthly to western border crossings and 500 thousand tons to Danube ports, partially offsetting maritime export losses.

• Ukraine’s 2026 oilseed harvest is projected near 20 million tons, including 12 million tons of sunflower seed, 4 million tons of soybeans, and 4 million tons of rapeseed, with harvesting nearing completion.

• Sunflower seed prices remain under harvest pressure and softened, with processing prices steady at 360 USD/t CPT Crush.

• Export sunflower seed and oil shipments are constrained by damaged Black Sea ports, leading to diversion of cargoes via Danube ports and western land routes, which have lower capacity and higher freight costs.

• Kernel Holding’s vegetable oil exports nearly halved in Q3 2026 due to port logistics problems, reflecting broader export flow disruptions.

• Logistics challenges and rising road freight costs are tightening nearby sunflower seed supply despite large crops, maintaining a risk premium on export and processed product flows.

• Ukraine is relocating border and customs controls to Poland and Moldova to safeguard sunflower exports amid Russian strikes on western border checkpoints.

• Ukraine continues to emphasize the critical global importance of restoring the Black Sea grain corridor to support international food security and maintain its role as a major supplier of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil.

• Negotiations with EU neighbors aim to move customs checks inside EU territory to protect export flows from Russian drone and missile attacks, ensuring continuity of agricultural shipments.

• Global sunflower seed production in 2026/27 is projected near record levels, increasing seed availability just as Ukraine’s main export corridors remain constrained, reshaping regional trade and pricing dynamics.

• The combination of ample supply and blocked seaborne logistics is pushing more sunflower seed into local crushing and regional markets, weighing on farm-gate and FCA prices in Ukraine and neighboring countries.