SPIKE Context

• Ukrainian grain export volumes remain suppressed by ongoing Black Sea port disruptions and high logistics costs, despite stable local prices at export terminals.

• Oilseed exports increased notably in October, driven by strong soybean and sunflower shipments, while grain exports declined compared to previous months.

• Ukraine exported 6.8 million tons of grain since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, with wheat accounting for 58% of total grain shipments despite a nearly 11% drop in overall grain exports in October.

• Corn export volumes fell 8% in October to 282.4 thousand tons amid sharply higher freight costs and limited Black Sea shipping capacity; corn export prices remain stable at $155/t CPT Odesa but FOB offers are under pressure due to logistics bottlenecks.

• Barley exports plunged 45.3% in October to 43.9 thousand tons, reflecting severe disruption in Black Sea logistics and port operations.

• Wheat export prices hold steady at $165/t CPT Odesa, supported by firm demand and freight premiums despite reduced Russian export offers and weak global demand.

• Oilseed exports rose 16.3% in October to 574.9 thousand tons, led by a 3.4-fold increase in soybean shipments to 123.8 thousand tons and a 3.7-fold rise in sunflower seed exports to 61.7 thousand tons.

• Rapeseed exports declined slightly by 11.7% in October to 378 thousand tons due to logistics constraints.

• Sunflower seed processing prices remain stable at $330/t CPT Crush, while soybean and rapeseed processing prices hold at $370/t and $410/t respectively.

• Sunflower oil export volumes reached approximately 340 thousand tons in October, with prices remaining high despite global declines in palm and soybean oil quotations.

• Black Sea port disruptions and Russian strikes continue to severely limit Ukrainian grain shipments, with vessel arrivals down about 90% year-on-year at major ports.

• Alternative export routes via Danube ports Reni and Izmail handle only 15-20% of national export volumes, causing significant bottlenecks and sharply higher freight costs.

• Transporting corn from central Ukraine to Western Europe now costs up to $150/t, triple the cost earlier this year, squeezing farmer margins and limiting export competitiveness.

• Rail capacity shortages in Europe and expensive barge freight further constrain export flows, forcing exporters to accept lower volumes and delayed shipments.

• Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has caused a 39.6% contraction in Russian wheat exports July–October 2026, with similar declines in barley and corn exports, tightening regional supply.

• Reduced Russian export offers and elevated freight and insurance costs keep Black Sea wheat prices supported despite weak global demand.

• Ukraine has become the largest barley supplier to the EU this season, tripling its market share to 30.9%, reflecting shifts in regional trade flows amid Black Sea disruptions.

• Ukrainian exporters report earning $6/t more by selling wheat directly to Egyptian mills via Danube ports, highlighting the importance of alternative corridors in maintaining export revenues.

• Despite export volume declines, demand for Ukrainian oilseeds and vegetable oils remains robust, supporting stable domestic processing margins and export prices.