SPIKE Context

🔎 Головні сигнали

Ukraine could increase sunflower seed exports fivefold at start of new season: Ukraine’s new-crop sunflower seed exports are picking up: traders contracted around 30 thsd tons in just one week for delivery to Turkey and Bulgaria. Exports could reach around 200 thsd tons in September-November, compared with only 39 thsd tons shipped abroad during the first ten months ... Provider: brave_search (ukragroconsult.com)

High logistics costs are holding back the rise in rapeseed prices in Ukraine: In 2026/27, Ukraine’s rapeseed exports are expected to reach no more than 1.8–2 mln tons, while domestic crushing could increase to 1.6–1.8 mln tons. Provider: brave_search (ukragroconsult.com)

Almost 90% of Ukraine’s vegetable oil rail exports are routed through western border crossings: Western border crossings have therefore effectively become the main rail export channel for Ukrainian vegetable oil and a significant share of oilseed processing products, while the share of ports in vegetable oil rail shipments has fallen to just 11%. Provider: brave_search (ukragroconsult.com)

Ukrainian crushers find it increasingly difficult to compete with the European market for rapeseed: The $65/t price gap is intensifying competition for feedstock and could force Ukrainian crushers to raise their purchasing prices if they want to secure sufficient volumes. At the same time, most of Ukraine’s new-crop rapeseed supply has already ... Provider: brave_search (ukragroconsult.com)

Higher crop yields in the EU have reduced demand for Ukrainian rapeseed: EU imports of Ukrainian rapeseed fell by around 34% in MY 2025/26 to 1.6 mln tons. Despite the decline, Ukraine remained the EU’s second-largest rapeseed supplier after Australia. Overall, the EU imported around 5.4 mln tons of rapeseed from third countries, down from 7.5 mln tons a season ... Provider: brave_search (ukragroconsult.com)

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices | IFPRI: Russia and Ukraine accounted for about 32% of global wheat trade in 2025/26, most of which transits the Black Sea. As we saw in 2022, Ukraine can ship some wheat overland by truck, rail, and barge via the Danube River to Romanian ports , but at ... Provider: brave_search (ifpri.org)

Ukraine’s grain exports fall to 20% of potential due to logistics constraints: Alternative routes are helping maintain some exports of oilseeds, but their capacity and economic efficiency are insufficient for large-scale grain shipments. High transportation costs make grain exports through these routes unprofitable in many cases for Ukrainian exporters. The EU remains one of the markets where Ukraine could increase shipments. Ukrainian (ukragroconsult.com)

Експортні ціни на фуражну пшеницю в Україні пішли вниз: У портах України цього тижня змінився ціновий тренд на фуражну пшеницю. Після зростання минулого тижня закупівельні ціни почали знижуватися на тлі (growhow.in.ua)

На фоні скорочення експорту зерна різко зросли поставки борошна - ProAgro Group Лідер українського ринку аграрних бізнес подій: Ячменю експортовано 360 тис. тонн проти пів мальйона тонн рік тому – на 28,6% менше. Поставки кукурудзи становлять 1 452 тис. Provider: brave_search (proagroukraine.com)

Corn extends gains as soybeans, wheat finish mixed - Brownfield Ag News: Corn extends gains as soybeans, wheat finish mixed - Brownfield Ag News (brownfieldagnews.com)

🚚 Логістика

🌾 Зернові

Russian Wheat Exports Brace for Decade Low in August Amid Black Sea Attacks - The Moscow Times: Russian grain exports risk dropping to a decade low in August due to shipping bottlenecks in southern ports caused by escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, industry analysts warned Tuesday. Provider: brave_search (themoscowtimes.com)

Wheat prices surge as Ukraine war disrupts Black Sea grain exports: The two countries are also important suppliers of barley, corn and sunflower oil. ... That makes the Black Sea a critical trade route for global food markets. But attacks have increasingly disrupted shipping from both countries. (firstpost.com)

Ukrainian farmers and grain exports hit hard by Russian blockade of Black Sea ports - EFE: Lviv (EFE).- Ukraine is urgently seeking solutions as Russia’s blockade of Odesa ports chokes grain exports at the peak of the harvest, despite efforts to scale up alternative routes. Provider: brave_search (efe.com)

Ukraine's black sea grain exports drop by 75% - Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine - No.1 Grains Industry Magazine & Website for Africa & the Middle East: The blockade has effectively shut down operations at the Greater Odesa port hub, including the key terminals at Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi. As of mid-August, no new commercial vessel calls had been reported, and trade sources indicate that grain is accumulating inland while exporters scramble to reroute shipments. Ukraine is now relying on alternative (millingmea.com)

Grains and oilseeds: restrictions prevail - Mundus Agri: BRUSSELS. Restrictions in the Black Sea port are impacting wheat exports. For corn, the outlook is rather devasting in the US. China has turned to the US for soybeans. (mundus-agri.eu)

🌱 Олійні та переробка

Part I. Logistics

Main export signals for the period:

1. Russian missile strikes severely disrupted Black Sea deep-water port operations, notably impacting Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi terminals, leading to a 75% drop in maritime grain exports.

2. Rail shipments of grains and oilseeds increased significantly on western border crossings, especially Chop and Uzhgorod, compensating for port limitations.

3. Road transport maintained steady export flows primarily directed towards EU countries, with corn exports benefiting from tariff-free access.

4. Danube River ports such as Izmail, Reni, and Kilia expanded their export role, handling about 45% of current grain exports, supported by increased rail and barge shipments.

🚚 ROAD TRANSPORT:

Road crossings at western borders, particularly Chop and Uzhgorod, sustained high volumes of grain and oilseed shipments, with daily wagon unloading rates at ports of the Danube rising modestly.

Road freight rates increased moderately due to higher fuel and operational expenses, affecting overall export costs.

Transporters adapted routes to avoid congested or risky areas, ensuring continuous flow despite infrastructure and security challenges.

Road shipments to EU markets remained crucial, especially for corn, which enjoys tariff-free access, supporting steady demand.

🚝 RAIL TRANSPORT:

Rail exports of grains and oilseeds rose by approximately 18% year-to-date, with daily wagon volumes fluctuating but showing an upward trend at western border crossings.

Rail flows split between direct deliveries to Black Sea ports and transshipment at western border hubs, balancing port congestion.

Vegetable oil rail exports predominantly routed through western border crossings, accounting for nearly 90% of rail shipments, while the share of ports in rail vegetable oil exports fell to about 11%.

Rail unloading rates at Danube ports showed modest growth, supporting the gradual reorientation of export flows from sea to river and land routes.

⚠️ Rail capacity constraints in European networks during harvest season limited further expansion of rail exports, pressuring logistics efficiency.

🚧 BORDER DIRECTION:

Wagon transfer and accumulation at western border crossings increased, with Chop handling the largest volumes, reflecting the shift from maritime to land-based export corridors.

Border infrastructure upgrades and operational adjustments aimed to improve throughput but faced seasonal and security-related bottlenecks.

Customs and inspection procedures at borders remained a critical factor influencing export speed and costs.

⚓️ PORT DIRECTION:

Black Sea ports, especially Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi, experienced severe operational disruptions due to ongoing missile attacks, halting new commercial vessel calls by mid-August.

Danube River ports such as Izmail, Reni, and Kilia increased their role in grain and oilseed exports, handling about 45% of Ukraine’s current export volumes.

Port unloading rates in the Odesa region declined significantly, with daily wagon unloading dropping by approximately 160 wagons compared to previous weeks.

Exporters increasingly rely on alternative corridors, including river and rail routes, to mitigate maritime port constraints.

Part II. Grains

📈 SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine:

Corn CPT Odesa export price stabilized at 190 USD/t with no change during the period.

Milling wheat CPT Odesa export price held steady at 195 USD/t, feed wheat at 185 USD/t.

Corn FCA Chop export price remained at 220 USD/t, reflecting stable demand despite logistical challenges.

🌽 CORN:

Corn export volumes faced logistical hurdles but maintained steady flows via western borders and Danube ports.

Pest and disease pressures affected up to 12% of corn plants and 8% of ears, mainly in southern, eastern, and central regions, potentially impacting yield quality.

Corn exports to the EU benefited from tariff-free access, supporting demand despite higher transportation costs.

Global corn prices showed mixed trends with gains supported by Black Sea supply concerns and weather conditions in other major producing regions.

🌾 WHEAT:

Wheat export prices showed stability, with milling wheat at 195 USD/t and feed wheat at 185 USD/t CPT Odesa.

Export volumes declined sharply due to Black Sea port disruptions, with alternative routes unable to fully compensate for maritime losses.

Danube river shipments and rail exports partially offset maritime export declines but at higher logistical costs.

Global wheat prices experienced upward pressure from Black Sea tensions and regional droughts, influencing Ukrainian export competitiveness.

Part III. Oilseeds and processing products

Sunflower seed processing price remained at 440 USD/t CPT Crush, soybean GMO at 425 USD/t, rapeseed non-GMO at 485 USD/t.

Export prices for GMO soybean CPT Odesa held at 420 USD/t, non-GMO soybean at 440 USD/t, rapeseed non-GMO at 500 USD/t CPT Port.

🌻 SUNFLOWER:

New-crop sunflower seed exports showed early signs of recovery with contracts for approximately 30 thousand tons to Turkey and Bulgaria in one week.

Exports could reach around 200 thousand tons in the September-November period, a significant increase compared to previous months.

Maritime export constraints shifted sunflower seed shipments towards Danube ports and overland routes.

🌿 RAPESEED:

Rapeseed exports are projected at 1.8–2 million tons for 2026/27, with domestic crushing expected to rise to 1.6–1.8 million tons.

High logistics costs limited rapeseed price growth despite steady demand.

Ukrainian crushers face a $65/t price gap compared to European markets, intensifying competition for feedstock and pressuring procurement prices.

EU imports of Ukrainian rapeseed fell by about 34% in MY 2025/26 due to higher EU crop yields, though Ukraine remains the EU’s second-largest supplier.

🌱 SOYBEANS:

Soybean export prices remained stable with GMO soybean FCA Chop at 435 USD/t and non-GMO FCA Chop at 470 USD/t.

China’s large purchases of new-crop American soybeans (over 1.1 million tons in one week) influence global soybean trade dynamics, indirectly affecting Ukrainian exports.

Legislative proposals in Ukraine aim to temporarily suspend export duties on soy, rapeseed, and sunflower to stimulate export flows.

Vegetable oil rail exports predominantly routed through western border crossings, reflecting adaptation to port disruptions.

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